Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts have abused their divisional rivals from Tennessee in recent years, winning nine of the last 10 games in the series straight-up and going 6-3-1 against the spread in the process.

Three weeks after rallying to beat Tennessee again, Indy now hosts the Titans this Sunday, wary of Tennessee’s recent string of ATS road success.

Point spread: Colts opened as 7-point favorites; the total was 44.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 21.8-21.7 Titans

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee is only 5-6, but that puts the Titans in a six-way tie for the second AFC Wild Card spot. So the Titans aren't dead yet. Sunday they stayed alive with a 23-19 victory at Oakland, getting the winning score on a Ryan Fitzpatrick TD pass with 10 seconds left.

Tennessee ranks 17th in total offense and 11th in total defense and has out-gained and out-rushed three of its last four opponents.

The Titans have also covered the spread in five straight road games.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy lost badly at Arizona on Sunday, but the Colts have shown a great ability recently to bounce back. The Colts still haven't lost back-to-back games with Andrew Luck at quarterback, going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS following a defeat over the last season-plus.

The Colts been falling behind in the first half in recent weeks, but they've also rallied twice in that span for victories. And they are tough within the AFC South, rolling to a 7-1 ATS mark in eight recent divisional contests.

Smart pick

Based in part upon Indy's performances of the past couple of weeks, the Odds Shark computer is predicting Tennessee to upset the Colts Sunday in a game that stays under its total. And the way the Colts have been playing recently, at least in first halves of games, that prediction doesn't seem unrealistic.

Take the points with the road dogs.

Trends:

• Titans 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS past 10 vs Colts
• Titans have covered five straight road games
• Colts lost two straight SU as home favorites
• Titans played five straight divisional OVERs
• Colts are 7-1 ATS past eight vs AFC South foes

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.