NFL Picks Week 13: Showcasing Most Exploitable Spreads

Thanksgiving week in the NFL is the perfect time to get in tune with the season, enjoy good food and company and make a little money with a carefully placed wager.

Luckily, this week there are a few spreads where not all that much caution has to be executed.

Looking over the odds for the week, three spreads jumped right out at me. Luckily, one of those even comes on Thursday, which will help line the pockets with some extra cash just in time for Black Friday.

Have a look at all of the spreads and predictions for the week, and then I'll discuss Week 13's best picks.  

Away Team	Home Team	Spread	ATS Pick
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	DET -6	Lions
Oakland Raiders	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -9.5	Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -3	Steelers
Tennessee Titans	Indianapolis Colts	IND -4	Titans
Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	DEN -3.5	Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars	Cleveland Browns	CLE -7	Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers	CAR -8	Panthers
Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	MIN -1	Bears
Arizona Cardinals	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -3.5	Eagles
Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	NYJ -1.5	Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	BUF -3.5	Bills
St. Louis Rams	San Francisco 49ers	SF -9.5	Rams
New England Patriots	Houston Texans	NE -5.5	Patriots
Cincinnati Bengals	San Diego Chargers	SD -1.5	Chargers
New York Giants	Washington Redskins	WAS -1.5	Giants

Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys 

Pick: Raiders +9.5

The Cowboys have a solid track record of Thanksgiving success against the spread. Dallas has bested the spread in eight of their last 11 games on the holiday. That won't happen this year. 

The defense in Big D has been far too porous for the Cowboys to cover this large spread. 

Dallas is 30th in rush defense and 32nd in yards allowed per rush. This defense is not getting any better, either. The Cowboys have allowed both of their last two opponents (Saints and Giants) to rush for over 200 yards. Those two teams rank 25th and 29th respectively in rushing offense. The Raiders are fourth. 

The Raiders are 25th in pass defense and will struggle to contain the likes of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. However, the Silver and Black don't need to shut out the 'Boys to send us all home winners.

With former Jacksonville Jaguars running back Rashad Jennings in good form and running strong, the Raiders will be able to string some time-eating drives together and keep this game close. 

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Raiders 20

St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Rams +9.5

In the first meeting of the season between these NFC West rivals, the 49ers cruised, 35-11, and that game was in St. Louis.

However, that was Week 4, and currently the Rams should not be over nine-point underdogs to anyone. The Rams, who had a bye in Week 11, have won their last two games by a combined score of 80-29. On top of that, the wins, over the Colts and Bears, came against teams in first place in their division. 

St. Louis' offense has sparked to life of late. The steady play of quarterback Kellen Clemens as he fills in for the injured Sam Bradford has helped, but it is the running game that is really paving the way. 

On the season, the Rams are 15th in the NFL in rushing at 113.8 yards per game, and that number has been on the rise. Over their last three games, the Rams have rushed for an average of 186 yards.

The Rams will have a hard time trying to duplicate that success against the stiff defense of the 49ers, but St. Louis also has the defense to keep the 49ers in check. 

The Rams are tied for 13th in the NFL by allowing 4.1 yards per rush. However, that defense is improving. Over their last three games, the Rams have allowed an average of 3.9 yards per carry. 

This will be enough to help limit the 49ers ground game, which will in turn slow down the offense. 

Prediction: 49ers 17, Rams 13

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

Pick: Giants +1.5

The Washington Redskins are a train wreck right now:

Nothing is going right for this team. Robert Griffin III is a shell of the player who set the world on fire as a rookie last season. While his poor play, his relationship with his coach and the locker-room dynamics get the majority of the press for this team, let us not also forget how terrible this defense is. 

It's been a bad year for the Washington D. The Redskins are 26th in passing defense and 14th in rushing defense. 

The Redskins, as they did on Monday night, have had way too many lapses that have led to blown coverage. However, even when this team is in position to make a play, it doesn't always happen: 

Meanwhile, after a wretched 0-6 start, the Giants have been playing vastly better football. That begins on the defensive side of the ball. New York has done a quality job of shutting down the opposition's running attack. 

The Giants are tied for fourth in the NFL in yards-allowed-per-carry. 

That will help them slow down running back Alfred Morris, which will in turn put the game almost solely in the hands of Robert Griffin, which will lead to the Giants winning this one straight up. 

Prediction: Giants 24, Redskins 20