Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs That Will Cover Your Bet

With three NFL contests on Thanksgiving, 12 games on Sunday and an NFC showdown between two powerhouses on Monday Night Football, there are more than enough opportunities to get your money in behind the right side in Week 13.

Let’s take a look at the opening lines for this upcoming slate of NFL action and my picks for the winner of each game against the spread, plus a closer look at a handful of underdogs that look ripe to cover and cash tickets.

Away Team	Home Team	Line	Prediction (ATS)
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	DET -5.5	GB
Oakland Raiders	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -9.5	DAL
Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -3	BAL
Tennessee Titans	Indianapolis Colts	IND -4.5	IND
Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	DEN -3	DEN
Jacksonville Jaguars	Cleveland Browns	CLE -7	CLE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers	CAR -8	TB
Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	N/A	N/A
Arizona Cardinals	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -3.5	PHI
Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	NYJ -2	NYJ
Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	BUF -3.5	BUF
St. Louis Rams	San Francisco 49ers	SF -9.5	SF
New England Patriots	Houston Texans	NE -5.5	NE
Cincinnati Bengals	San Diego Chargers	PK	SD
New York Giants	Washington Redskins	WAS -1.5	WAS
New Orleans Saints	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -6	SEA

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over Detroit Lions

The Packers are heading into this critical Thanksgiving matchup against a bitter NFC North rival as 5.5-point underdogs. They are well worth playing at that number, especially after a promising showing from backup quarterback Matt Flynn in a Week 12 tie with the Minnesota Vikings.

Flynn entered the game midway through the third quarter, facing a 20-7 deficit after Scott Tolzien failed to put more than a single rushing touchdown on the board. He engineered a comeback by connecting on 21 of 36 passes for 218 yards and a score, leading the Pack back from a 16-point hole to force overtime and an eventual 26-26 tie.

Based on that success, it’s quite likely that Flynn will get the starting nod in the case that Aaron Rodgers misses his fourth straight contest with a broken collarbone. The incumbent starter hasn’t been ruled out yet, but it doesn’t seem likely he will re-emerge on such short rest.

Flynn had his best performance as a pro against the Lions on New Year's Day during the 2011 season, completing 31 of 44 passes for 480 yards and six touchdowns. While he’s bounced around the league since then, the six-year veteran returned home to the team that drafted him in the seventh round of the 2008 draft.

Factor in that Detroit is coming off one of its most disappointing outings of the current campaign—dropping a winnable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a second straight loss—and you are looking at a recipe for a letdown in the Motor City.

One big reason for the Lions' recent losing streak is turnovers. The club has struggled mightily with giveaways lately, totaling eight in the past two games while forcing zero takeaways. That drops this team to a negative-seven turnover differential on the season, one of the worst marks in the league.

While the Packers might not outright win this game, they should be close if they take care of the football and force a few key turnovers. Detroit has also been extremely beatable through the air in recent weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger notably racked up 367 yards, four touchdowns and zero picks in a Pittsburgh Steelers victory in Week 11, followed by Mike Glennon’s 247-yard, two-touchdown, no-interception outing this past Sunday.

As long as Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy isn’t afraid to unleash Flynn and allow him to throw the ball, his team should be in position to win this one late and definitely cover the spread.

Take the points and watch as the Packers make this coming Turkey Day an interesting one for football fans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) over Carolina Panthers

The surging Bucs have a chance to win a fourth straight game and play spoiler to yet another playoff hopeful in the NFC.

This club has finally realized the immense amount of promise and potential on the roster, even though injuries to a number of key players have forced much of that talent to the sidelines.

Star sophomore back Doug Martin is done for the season along with his promising backup Mike James. Top guard Carl Nicks has been limited to just two games as he recovers from surgery to remove an MRSA infection. The team is still waiting for news on star cornerback Darrelle Revis’ latest groin injury, but it has managed to succeed without all of these top-tier talents.

Mike Glennon has emerged as the best rookie quarterback in football and is only getting better with each passing week. The first-year man out of NC State has been efficient and poised since taking over as the starter in Week 4.

Carolina’s top-ranked defense will pose a real challenge to Glennon and his offense, but it’s hard to imagine the Bucs being slowed too much at this point.

Opponent	Yards	TD's	INT's	Rating
Arizona Cardinals (L)	193	1	2	55.7
Philadelphia Eagles (L)	273	2	1	84.7
Atlanta Falcons (L)	256	2	0	90.7
Carolina Panthers (L)	275	1	0	80.1
Seattle Seahawks (L)	168	2	0	123.1
Miami Dolphins (W)	139	1	1	69.3
Atlanta Falcons (W)	231	2	0	137.5
Detroit Lions (W)	247	2	0	138.4

While Carolina concedes an average of just 215.9 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins managed to breach the 300-yard mark in Week 12, while Tom Brady was just shy of that benchmark when his New England Patriots came to town the previous Sunday night.

The real challenge will be for Tampa to get some semblance of a ground game going with Bobby Rainey. The 26-year-old had a breakout game against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11—going off for 163 yards and two scores on the ground—but was bottled up by a solid Lions front that concedes an average of just 88 yards per game to opposing rushers.

Carolina has limited the opposition to an average of 81.5 yards per contest via the ground, so it will be hard for the Bucs to do much else but air it out against a secondary that has been getting toasted in recent weeks.

Regardless, this line is well worth backing for Tampa if it is getting spotted over a touchdown.

The Bucs may not outright win on their short road trip, but they should stay in the game right up until the final whistle blows due to Glennon’s arm and head coach Greg Schiano’s willingness to roll the dice.