San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The San Diego Chargers are 9-2 in their last 11 games against their divisional rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bolts will try to keep that trend going when they head to KC to play the no-longer-unbeaten Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 27.7-19.5 Chiefs

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego has lost three games in a row, but each defeat came by one score or less. The Chargers rank seventh in total offense and fourth in passing, so they can move the ball. And in two wins over KC last year, the Bolts scored 37 and 31 points, respectively. Also, San Diego has held the upper hand in this rivalry recently, winning eight of the last 10 meetings between these AFL originals.

The Chargers also face a Chiefs team that continues to struggle within the AFC West (1-7 straight up, 2-6 against the spread in the last eight divisional battles).

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

KC is coming off its first loss of the season, 27-17 at Denver on Sunday night. However, the defense was respectable, holding Denver to 104 yards on 36 carries and limiting the number of big plays by Peyton Manning and Co. to a couple. And while the Chargers can move the ball, they don't compare with the Broncos.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer predicts KC will win and cover and the game will play over its total. But when a long winning streak is snapped, a team often has a hard time bouncing back its next time out. San Diego, meanwhile, has lost some close games recently. Maybe it's time the Chargers won one. Take the points with the Chargers.

Trends:

• Chargers are 9-2 straight up past 11 games vs. Chiefs
• Over is 11-2-1 in the past 14 Chargers games as road dogs
• Under is 7-1-1 in the past nine KC games as home chalk
• Chiefs are 1-7 straight up, 2-6 against the spread in the last eight divisional games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.