Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots: Betting Odd Analysis, Pick Prediction

The New England Patriots much prefer the home cooking this season, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in Foxboro.

Coming off their Monday night loss at Carolina, the Patriots head home for another big game, this one against old friend Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos Sunday night.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 54.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 38.8-31.7 Broncos

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver still leads the league in total offense and scoring, and the defense has been doing its job lately, playing to the score, holding its last three foes to less the 20 points per game during a current three-game winning streak.

The Broncos just took over the top seed in the AFC, after beating then 9-0 Kansas City Sunday 27-17. And they're catching New England on a short week, after the Patriots lost at Carolina Monday night.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

By the numbers New England isn't all that impressive, but they are 7-3, and their three losses have come by a total of 14 points. TE Rob Gronkowski has caught 25 balls for 350 yards and two scores in his first four games back from injury.

And the Pats just beat the Broncos one year ago 31-21 in a game that wasn't as close as that score might indicate. In the past five meetings, Brady owns a 4-1 ATS edge over Denver.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark predictor computer is calling for a Denver win and cover in a game that cruises OVER its total. But Belichick and Brady are 9-4 career against Manning and New England almost never loses two games in a row.

Both teams are coming off big games, but the Patriots are headed home, while the Broncos will have to get on a plane and play in the Eastern time zone. Take New England.

Trends:

• Broncos 1-4 SU & ATS past five vs Patriots
• Patriots 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at home in 2013

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.