Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings: Breaking Down Biggest Surprises in Top 10

Matt McGloin, Bobby Rainey, Donald Brown, Montee Ball, Jairus Wright, Marquise Goodwin, Danny Noble and Mychal Rivera—what do all of these players have in common?

Why, they were all in the top 10 fantasy rankings at their respective positions this week, and absolutely no one saw it coming, that's what!

Of course, starting an obscure player who has never proven to be a viable fantasy option would be madness, which is why on my top-10 lists for every position, you'll generally find players you are familiar with. But that doesn't mean you won't be surprised by a few players you'll find below, so let's take a closer look at this week's surprises in my projections.

Notes: All point totals for standard-scoring leagues. Points against stats via ESPN. The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks are on bye. 

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	30
2	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26
3	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	25
4	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	24
5	Tom Brady	New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	20
6	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts	Arizona Cardinals	17
7	Colin Kaepernick	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	17
8	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	Miami Dolphins	15
9	Robert Griffin III	Washington	San Francisco 49ers	15
10	Alex Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	14

The biggest surprise you'll find in a pretty familiar group of quarterbacks in the top 10 is probably Alex Smith, but perhaps it shouldn't be. Smith is averaging a steady if unspectacular 14.9 fantasy points per week and has reached or exceeded 20 points four times.

This week, he faces a San Diego Chargers defense allowing 276 passing yards per week (27th in the NFL) and has given up 15 passing scores. In a week when owners should generally be trusting their studs, Smith is a surprise but justified entry in the top 10.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	25
2	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	24
3	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	21
4	Chris Johnson	Teneessee Titans	Oakland Raiders	20
5	Zac Stacy	St. Louis Rams	Chicago Bears	20
6	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	19
7	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	15
8	Knowshon Moreno	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	14
9	Rashad Jennings	Oakland Raiders	Tennessee Titans	13
10	Ben Tate	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	13

Zac Stacy should not be a surprise to you. Since being named the starter of the St. Louis Rams, he's been excellent.

But you can feel free to be surprised about Rashad Jennings and Ben Tate making this list. Darren McFadden may return from injury this week, but Jennings has earned the right to receive at least half of the backfield touches in Oakland's offense after notching 340 rushing yards and two touchdowns the past three weeks.

This week, he faces a Tennessee Titans defense that allows 117.1 rushing yards per game (tied 20th in the NFL) and has given up 17 or more fantasy points to opposing running backs eight times this season. 

Meanwhile, Ben Tate takes on a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed 19 or more fantasy points to opposing running backs six times this year—a defense that also gives up an NFL-worst 139.1 rushing yards per game. However, the Jags defense been stingier against opposing running backs in the past two weeks.

Still, expect very big things for Tate.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27
2	Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	22
3	Josh Gordon	Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	20
4	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	19
5	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	18
6	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	16
7	Brandon Marshall	Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	16
8	Victor Cruz	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	14
9	Larry Fitzgerald	Arizona Cardinals	Indianapolis Colts	14
10	Marques Colston	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	13

The first eight players on this list are familiar faces—yes, I like Jordy Nelson this week against the Minnesota Vikings, because I like most offensive players against the dreadful Minny defense—but Larry Fitzgerald making this list for a second straight week, and Marques Colston returning to fantasy relevance might surprise a few folks.

Fitzgerald broke his fantasy slump Sunday with six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. He faces an Indianapolis Colts defense that has given up 24 or more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers five times, so he should be in line for another productive afternoon.

Meanwhile, Colston has 12 receptions for 187 yards and a touchdowns in his past two games and now gets a miserable Atlanta Falcons defense allowing 249 passing yards per game (22nd in the NFL) and has surrendered 21 passing touchdowns on the season (30th).

Expect the good times to keep on rolling for both of these players. 

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Vernon Davis	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	18
2	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	17
3	Julius Thomas	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	15
4	Jimmy Graham	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	13
5	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	12
6	Tony Gonzalez	Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints	12
7	Rob Housler	Arizona Cardinals	Indianapolis Colts	10
8	Delanie Walker	Tennessee Titans	Oakland Raiders	9
9	Jordan Cameron	Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	9
10	Charles Clay	Miami Dolphins	Carolina Panthers	8

Rob Housler has really turned heads the past two weeks with 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. The Colts just allowed Delanie Walker to catch 10 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown, so Housler should be quite productive against them.

Oh, and speaking of Walker, he now has 14 receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the past two weeks. He has a touchdown in three of his past four games and seems to be established as Ryan Fitzpatrick's security blanket, making him a player worth owning down the stretch. 

Defense/Special Teams

Rank	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Carolina Panthers	Miami Dolphins	18
2	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	17
3	Tennessee Titans	Oakland Raiders	17
4	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	15
5	Baltimore Ravens	New York Jets	14
6	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	12
7	St. Louis Rams	Chicago Bears	10
8	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	10
9	Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	9
10	Miami Dolphins	Carolina Panthers	8

The majority of this list is a surprise. With the Bengals and Seahawks on a bye, you shouldn't be afraid to take some chances this week. 

Geno Smith hasn't thrown a touchdown in three games (he has five interceptions in that time), has a dreadful 56.3 completion percentage, has turned the ball over 16 times this year and lacks weapons in the passing game.

In other words, the Ravens are a nice start.

The St. Louis Rams have 11 or more fantasy points in four of their last six games, so they're worth starting at home and coming off a bye, even against a very good Chicago offense. And they also have Kellen Clemens as their starting quarterback, so the Bears defense is a good start, too.

The Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins make the list because neither the Jacksonville Jaguars nor the Carolina Panthers have a compelling offense. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints have been tough against the pass, and its hard to imagine the Atlanta Falcons (73.1 rushing yards per game, 31st in the NFL) beating them on the ground.

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