NFL Spreads Week 11: Lines and Selections for Entire Slate of Games

Week 11 got off to an exciting start as Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts stormed back to defeat the Tennessee Titans. Based on the loaded slate of games on tap, it's probably the first of several games that will go right down to the wire this week.

The high level of competitiveness across the schedule is highlighted by the spreads. Only one game features a double-digit line this week (Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings). If the oddsmakers are accurate, that means a lot of close games on the horizon.

Knowing that, let's examine the complete schedule of games for Week 11, along with spreads and selections for each. The list is followed by a breakdown of the top picks on the board. All lines are courtesy of Vegas Insider.

Week 11 Picks

Date	Road Team	Home Team	Line	Pick
Nov. 17	Jets	Bills	NYJ -1	BUF
Nov. 17	Falcons	Buccaneers	Pick	ATL
Nov. 17	Lions	Steelers	DET -2.5	DET
Nov. 17	Redskins	Eagles	PHI -4.5	WSH
Nov. 17	Cardinals	Jaguars	ARZ -9	JAX
Nov. 17	Raiders	Texans	HOU -9	OAK
Nov. 17	Ravens	Bears	CHI -3	BAL
Nov. 17	Browns	Bengals	CIN -6	CIN
Nov. 17	Chargers	Dolphins	SD -1.5	SD
Nov. 17	Packers	Giants	NYG -4.5	GB
Nov. 17	Vikings	Seahawks	SEA -12.5	SEA
Nov. 17	49ers	Saints	NO -3	NO
Nov. 17	Chiefs	Broncos	DEN -8	KC
Nov. 18	Patriots	Panthers	CAR -3	NE

Breakdown of Top Selections

New England Patriots (+3)

Watch out for the Patriots. A weak schedule allowed them to compile a 7-2 record before the bye, but it wasn't until their last two games that they really started to play well. With the offense rolling and the defense getting after the passer, they should be rounding into form heading into the stretch run.

The biggest difference is Tom Brady finally getting some of his weapons back and up to full speed. The combination of Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola, along with an improved rushing attack, once again gives New England one of the league's most explosive offenses.

Although the Carolina Panthers have been trending in the right direction, mostly due to some terrific play on defense, keeping pace with Brady and Co. is a tall task. The Panthers offense ranks 21st in yards per game and will come up just short in its latest test.

Prediction: Patriots by three

Buffalo Bills (+1)

The Bills are a much better team at home, which isn't uncommon for a young team. They beat the Panthers at Ralph Wilson Stadium, while also pushing the Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs to the limit before falling just short.

So while Buffalo looked completely out of sync on the road last week, it's no cause for overreaction. EJ Manuel's quarterback rating splits are further evidence, as he rates nearly 15 points higher at home. It's just an easier environment for a rookie to handle.

On the flip side, the Jets have followed a similar trend with their own rookie quarterback, Geno Smith. Their only road win came over a depleted Atlanta Falcons squad and that victory was sandwiched by away losses to the Tennessee Titans by 25 and the Bengals by 40.

With the game in Buffalo, the Bills should hold the edge.

Prediction: Bills by four

Atlanta Falcons (Pick)

It's been a season to forget in Atlanta. After entering the season with high expectations, the offense has never gotten on track due to injuries and the defense has not been able to pick up the slack. This week, however, they face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad with even more question marks.

Doug Martin and Mike James are both out for the season due to injury, which leaves Tampa Bay's running game in shambles. That's exactly what the Bucs couldn't afford with the extremely raw Mike Glennon under center and a middling defense that ranks 14th in points and yards allowed.

The Falcons' difficult schedule down the stretch will likely make it too difficult for them to make a late charge toward the playoffs. That said, they are still a more talented squad than the Bucs and should be able to pick up the division win.

Prediction: Falcons by six