NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 11: Underdogs That Will Win Outright

The old adage is that defense wins championships, and the underdogs against the spread that will emerge victorious in Week 11 are either playing it at an elite level or have made big strides in recent games.

Although their betting lines are competitive, both of last season's Super Bowl participants are being slighted on the road by the oddsmakers with three-point deficits, according to BetOnline.com.

Then there is an upstart potential playoff contender fresh off a bye: the improbable Cleveland Browns. They are facing a massive divisional matchup against the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals, who are a six-point favorite at home despite losing their past two games.

Read on for complete picks against the spread, along with a closer look at why the Browns and the other underdogs will win outright.

Cleveland Browns (+6) over Cincinnati Bengals

Browns cornerback Joe Haden has emerged as one of the best at his position in the league, and that is going to be critical in his second clash with Bengals wideout A.J. Green. Haden got the best of the battle in Week 4, but Green should be bent on thriving this time around.

The problem for Cincinnati could be the man throwing Green the ball in quarterback Andy Dalton, who has been sloppy in the team's past two losses:

Dalton is facing a defense that has registered 31 sacks this season and should only keep opening up the playbook under coordinator Ray Horton with more exotic looks than before in this monumental game.

When the Browns have gotten competent quarterback play this season—a la when Brandon Weeden isn't in the game—they have looked like a playoff team. That was the case under Brian Hoyer's guidance and is now with Jason Campbell as the starter.

While Campbell has not thrown an interception in his two starts, it's not as though he's checking it down every play. The veteran journeyman is making the most of his opportunity and is ripping it with confidence in Norv Turner's QB-friendly offense.

Even in the unfriendly environment of Paul Brown Stadium, it seems there is something different with Cleveland in 2013.

The first meeting went to the Browns 17-6, so the score should be lower this time around, too. But that should favor the away team led by the less mistake-prone Campbell.

Prediction: Browns 20, Bengals 17

Baltimore Ravens (+3) over Chicago Bears

For whatever it's worth, this seems to be the point in the season where the Ravens have kicked it into gear since Joe Flacco took over as starting quarterback in 2008.

Flacco isn't playing like a Super Bowl MVP, but that's mostly due to a poor running game to complement him. The juncture of the season and the circumstances of his matchup against Chicago should change those trends.

Baltimore's defense came back in a big way last week in a 20-17 overtime victory over Cincinnati that kept the team within striking distance in the division.

To overcome the momentum of a last-second Hail Mary is a testament to the resolve still innate in the foundation of this Lombardi Trophy-defending core.

If the Browns do indeed top the Bengals and the Ravens win at Soldier Field, Baltimore would move to within a half-game of first place.

Considering how bad the Bears are against the run—31st in the league—Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice should finally break out for big performances.

That will open things up for Flacco to test the Bears vertically with No. 1 target Torrey Smith. When possible, that is, because winds are expected to be around 26 miles per hour in Chicago, per Weather.com.

With Flacco's elite arm and Josh McCown under center for the Bears, the visitors' signal-caller is likelier to prevail in the arduous conditions.

Prediction: Ravens 31, Bears 21

San Francisco 49ers (+3) over New Orleans Saints

The best news for the Niners is that superstar tight end Vernon Davis and first-round rookie free safety should be ready to roll, according to head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Only once in two-plus seasons under Harbaugh has San Francisco lost consecutive games, but in taking a trip to the Superdome on Sunday, it is in danger of doing so for the second time.

Davis' presence is vital to QB Colin Kaepernick's success. As ESPN Stats & Info highlights, he is a different quarterback with the supreme athlete on the field:

But don't expect the Niners to take to the air too often but rather to play keep-away from Drew Brees and New Orleans' explosive passing game.

Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman should feed running back Frank Gore, who has had his lowest carry totals of the season in each of San Francisco's three losses. The opponent alone dictates more Gore and less reliance on the young Kaepernick.

Between NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis, the Niners also have the linebackers to at least limit Saints tight end Jimmy Graham in coverage. Now that Aldon Smith is back in the fold, too, they have an even more dangerous pass rush.

This is going to be a close one, but thanks to defense and Gore facing the 23rd-ranked rush defense, the reigning NFC champions will get it done to maintain one of the two wild-card spots.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Saints 24

Away Team	Home Team	Pick (Spread)
Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	Browns (+6)
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	Jets (-1)
Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	Lions (-3)
Arizona Cardinals	Jacksonville Jaguars	Cardinals (-9)
Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	Ravens (+3)
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles (-4.5)
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers (-1)
Oakland Raiders	Houston Texans	Raiders (+9)
San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	Chargers (-1.5)
Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Giants (-4)
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	49ers (+3)
Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks (-12.5)
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	Chiefs (+9.5)
New England Patriots	Carolina Panthers	Panthers (-2.5)