New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

The New York Jets have held the upper hand recently in their rivalry with the Buffalo Bills, winning seven of the last eight meetings straight up while going 6-2 ATS. The Jets and Bills meet for the 106th time in their series Sunday afternoon up in Buffalo.

Point Spread: Bills opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 41. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 15.3-14.5 Bills

Why the Jets Can Cover the Spread

Statistically speaking, New York ranks ninth in the league in rushing, eighth in total defense and first vs. the run, holding foes to just 74 yards per game on the ground. In the NFL teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So far this year the Jets are out-rushing opponents by 55 yards per game.

They have shown an ability to win after a bye week as well, going 9-3 ATS in this situation the past dozen seasons.

Why the Bills Can Cover the Spread

Buffalo has lost its last three games both SU and ATS, but the juggled QB situation has been a big factor. This week EJ Manuel will start for the second straight game, perhaps providing some stability at that position. Also, the Bills rank seventh in the league in rushing, and they're 4-1 ATS at Ralph Wilson Stadium this year.

Smart Pick

It's a tight squeeze, but the Odds Shark computer is calling for a Buffalo victory and a New York cover, in a game that will stay UNDER its total. But the Bills just can't seem to get anything to go their way, while the Jets are coming off an upset of the Saints and had last week off.

Also, New York beat Buffalo 27-20 back in September, out-gaining the Bills by almost 200 yards. Take the Jets.

Trends

• Jets 9-3 ATS past 12 games following a bye
• Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games at home
• Jets 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS past eight games vs Bills

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.