Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Cincinnati Bengals have enjoyed the home cooking lately, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, have won just two of their last 19 road games.

Cincy hosts the 81st edition of the Paul Brown Bowl Sunday.

Point Spread: Bengals opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 23.6-16.6 Bengals

Why the Browns Can Cover the Spread

Cleveland got a solid performance from backup QB Jason Campbell in a victory over Baltimore two weeks ago, then had last week off. The Browns are still a work in progress on offense, but defensively they rank fifth overall and sixth against the run. Also, the Brownies have beaten Cincinnati two times in a row, including 17-6 back in September.

Why the Bengals Can Cover the Spread

Cincy has lost two games in a row, but both came in overtime. The Bengals are one of the more balanced teams in the league, ranking eighth in offense and fourth in defense. They also rank fifth in average time of possession, holding the ball for nearly 33 minutes per game.

In the NFL teams that win the TOP battle cover the spread almost 70 percent of games.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is calling for a Cincy victory and cover in a game that will stay UNDER its total. Cleveland has won the last two games in this rivalry, but before that the Bengals had won four in a row. Also, Campbell is nursing sore ribs, and may not be at 100 percent.

Plus, this game sets up nicely for a “reversal,” with the Browns coming off a victory, and the division-leading Bengals off two losses. Give the points and go with Cincy.

Trends

• Browns are 5-1-1 ATS past seven games after a bye week
• Browns are 1-8 SU past nine games vs Ravens
• Browns are 2-17 SU past 19 road games
• Bengals are 7-1 ATS past eight home games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.