NFL Picks Week 11: Home Teams Guaranteed to Win

The NFL season is well past the halfway point in Week 11, and the exceptional parity that exists in the league makes picking games a maddening weekly experience. However, there are a few games on the schedule this weekend that are guaranteed winners for the home teams involved. 

With the playoffs looming, there are a few top teams that have emerged as the league's most powerful. The Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots dominate the AFC landscape, while the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints are clearly the best in the NFC to this point. 

There are still plenty of games left to shake things up at the top, though, and the race for the final spots is wide open. 

Here's a look at the full schedule for Week 11, followed by a closer examination of the games that feature home teams guaranteed to win. 

AWAY	HOME	PREDICTED WINNER
Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans	Colts
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	Bills
Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	Bears
Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	Browns
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles
Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	Lions
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals	Jacksonville Jaguars	Cardinals
Oakland Raiders	Houston Texans	Texans
San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	Chargers
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	Saints
Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Giants
Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	Chiefs
New England Patriots	Carolina Panthers	Patriots

Washington at Philadelphia

Neither team in this contest features a strong defense, but Philadelphia's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, while Washington remains enigmatic on that side of the ball. 

Philly's running offense has been unstoppable this year, but Washington isn't far behind. These two teams represent two of the top three running teams in the league, and both feature hot running backs in LeSean McCoy and Alfred Morris. 

Robert Griffin III played extremely well against the Vikings last weekend, throwing three touchdowns, but he's been incredibly inconsistent this year, with 12 touchdowns, nine interceptions and nine fumbles. 

Meanwhile, Nick Foles has yet to throw a single interceptions this year, throwing 16 touchdowns—including 10 in his last two games. 

All other things being equal (or thereabouts), the edge goes to Philadelphia for having the hot quarterback—not to mention the fact that Washington already lost once to the Eagles this year. 

Projected Score: Eagles win 35-24.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Atlanta comes into this contest with a better record, but there's no doubt about which team is playing better right now. 

Tampa Bay finally got its first win of the season on Monday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins, but this is a team that has been close to winning a handful of times this year.

Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has displayed exceptional poise and leadership since taking over for Josh Freeman, and his performance on the field hasn't been shabby, either (nine touchdowns and four interceptions). 

Atlanta has already beaten Tampa Bay this year, but the Falcons haven't looked good at all since that time, losing badly to the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks. 

Featuring the league's worst rushing attack, the injury-ridden Falcons offense is a shadow of its former self. Atlanta is averaging 20.7 points per game this year, and only 11 points per game in its last three.

Though the Bucs have only won a single contest this year, this team is starting to come together, and it will win two in a row after taking down the Falcons on Sunday. 

Projected Score: Buccaneers win 24-14.

Minnesota at Seattle

After watching last weekend's action, one couldn't help but be reminded that there are no gimmes in the NFL. St. Louis annihilated Indianapolis, Jacksonville got its first win of the season in Tennessee and New Orleans beat Dallas so badly it'll take weeks for those wounds to heal. 

However, you'd be hard-pressed to find any NFL experts who give the Minnesota Vikings a chance in hell at beating the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in Seattle. 

And for good reason. 

Seattle's defense isn't kind to bad quarterbacks, and the Vikings don't have any good ones. Adrian Peterson is really, really good, but he isn't going to carry Minnesota to victory against this team.

On the other side, the Seahawks reportedly are finally going to get Percy Harvin in the game for the first time since he was traded this past spring, as noted by Ian Rapoport of NFL.com:

Harvin will certainly want to get back at his old team after he left on terms that were less than ideal. He'll spark a huge offensive output by Seattle against the third-worst defense in the league. 

Seattle hasn't lost a regular-season home game since Dec. 24, 2011. Expect that streak to continue in Week 11 against the overmatched Vikings, who have lost four in a row in the road.

Projected Score: Seahawks win 38-17.

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