Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs Who Will Cover Your Bet

Week 11 of the 2013 NFL season is on the horizon, making this an ideal time to analyze the opening lines and make your plays for the upcoming slate of games.

If you aren’t sure which direction to lean or want some advice before pulling the trigger, look no further as I have you covered.

Keep reading to find out the lines for every matchup and my picks for the winner of each, plus a closer peek at a handful of underdogs who look destined to cover the spread.

Away Team	Home Team	Line	Prediction (ATS)
Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans	IND -3	IND
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	ATL -1	TB
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	BUF -1	NYJ
Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	DET -2.5	DET
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -3	PHI
San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	PK	MIA
Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	CHI -4	CHI
Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -5.5	CLE
Oakland Raiders	Houston Texans	HOU -7	HOU
Arizona Cardinals	Jacksonville Jaguars	ARI -6.5	ARI
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	DEN -8	KC
Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -13.5	SEA
Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	NYG -3.5	GB
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	NO -3	NO
New England Patriots	Carolina Panthers	CAR -2.5	NE

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) over Atlanta Falcons

The Buccaneers have yet to conquer an NFC South foe in 2013, but it seems they could break their ugly losing streak against the Falcons this coming Sunday.

Atlanta has been anything but consistent this year and is in the midst of its second three-game slide. While the Dirty Birds were able to snap their first streak against the Bucs, they won’t be as fortunate in Week 11.

The Falcons won that previous contest at home in the Georgia Dome by 10 points, but the game was closer than the final score indicated. Tampa had chances in the final five minutes but had to rely on field goals instead of touchdowns.

With the home crowd behind them, this Bucs team will be hungry for revenge against a divisional rival that it knows it can beat. Those opportunities on the opponent's side of the field will likely result in seven points instead of three.  

Vincent Jackson will be the go-to option for this squad, as the star wideout decimated the poor Atlanta secondary for 138 yards and two scores on 10 catches. If he can get some support from the other receivers and the rushing game, there is a good chance that Tampa outright wins this one.

The Bucs defense is good enough to get stops against a severely limited Falcons offense, and this team just needs to put points on the board to walk away with a victory.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

The well-rested Browns are coming off a bye and hungry for a chance to get back to .500 against the rival Bengals.

According to ScoresAndOdds.com, Cincinnati was favored by 4.5 points in the first matchup between these two AFC North foes, but bettors that backed the Bengals came away sorely disappointed.

While the location of this contest is shifting south to Cincy, the outcome should likely be the same, and Cleveland is once again the best side to back in this one.

The Browns figured out how to keep the Bengals offense off the board, blanketing the receiving corps and focusing on stopping the run. That resulted in Andy Dalton completing just 23 of 42 passes for 206 yards and an interception, while the team as a whole gained just 63 yards on 20 carries.

On offense, the Browns were able to create mismatches with stud tight end Jordan Cameron, who decimated the coverage for 91 yards and a score on 10 catches. Josh Gordon also opened things up from his wideout spot, gaining 71 yards on just four receptions.

While the quarterback is different—Brian Hoyer was under center in that game, and Jason Campbell is expected to start this coming contest—the results should be similar.

New England Patriots (+2.5) over Carolina Panthers

Backing the Patriots in this Monday Night Football game appears to be the lock of the week.

New England is getting points for just the second time this season, the first coming in Week 4 on the road against the Falcons. The Pats covered in that game against the Dirty Birds and should be able to cover in the stadium of another NFC South opponent in Week 11.

Expect this squad to come out of its much-needed bye firing on all cylinders, taking the Panthers by surprise and outright winning against a team that mustered just 10 points in its Week 10 victory.

New England could potentially return third-down running back and all-around versatile weapon Shane Vereen to the lineup for the first time since the season-opener, and that could be the X-factor in this contest.

The third-year back dominated in his only appearance, rushing 14 times for 101 yards and catching seven passes for an additional 58 yards. His re-emergence—if it happens this week—will be the boost that the Pats need to make a late-season run to the top of the AFC standings.

Add in an additional week of rest for star tight end Rob Gronkowski and the oft-injured Danny Amendola, and you are looking at a recipe for an offensive explosion in Week 11.

The Panthers may have contained the San Francisco 49ers this past week, but things aren’t looking good for them, and it would be wise to get behind the Pats as a rare 'dog in this matchup.