NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 10: Making Sense of Toughest Matchups on Slate

Week 10 of the 2013 NFL regular season commenced on Thursday, November 7, with the Minnesota Vikings defeating the Washington Redskins by a score of 34-27. It was the beginning of what is certain to be yet another week of unpredictability.

The question is, which teams will beat the odds in the week's closest games?

Date	Road Team	Prediction	Home Team	Odds (via Bovada)
Thursday, Nov. 7	Washington Redskins (27)	31-23	Minnesota Vikings (34)	N/A
Sunday, Nov. 10	Seattle Seahawks	28-17	Atlanta Falcons	Seahawks (-6)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Detroit Lions	27-31	Chicago Bears	Even
Sunday, Nov. 10	Cincinnati Bengals	27-20	Baltimore Ravens	Bengals (-1)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Philadelphia Eagles	28-23	Green Bay Packers	Packers (-1)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Jacksonville Jaguars	13-24	Tennessee Titans	Titans (-13)
Sunday, Nov. 10	St. Louis Rams	14-27	Indianapolis Colts	Colts (-10)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Oakland Raiders	24-28	New York Giants	Giants (-7.5)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Buffalo Bills	20-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers (-3)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Carolina Panthers	16-21	San Francisco 49ers	49ers (-6)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Houston Texans	20-23	Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals (-3)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Denver Broncos	35-27	San Diego Chargers	Broncos (-7)
Sunday, Nov. 10	Dallas Cowboys	35-42	New Orleans Saints	Saints (-7)
Monday, Nov. 11	Miami Dolphins	24-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dolphins (-3)

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

Date: Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Even via Bovada

Prediction: 31-27, Bears

The Detroit Lions will travel to face the Chicago Bears in a game that will decide the front-runner in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers injured and the Bears, Lions and Green Bay Packers all tied at 5-3, every game counts.

According to Bovada, the betting line is even. That's how it should be.

The Lions are coming off a bye week but reached 5-3 by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 31-30 in Week 8. During Week 4, the Lions defeated Chicago by a score of 40-32, which has some believing there could be a repeat.

If Detroit does win, it'd be its first victory at Soldier Field since October 28, 2007.

The Bears aren't at full strength, but Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com reports that quarterback Jay Cutler is expected to make his return from injury. Cutler had 12 passing touchdowns on a completion percentage of 64.9 before going down during Week 7.

That will be the difference in this game.

That's not all you need to know about Cutler's importance.

Cutler has the best fourth-quarter passer rating in the NFL, per Tyler Dunne of USA Today. That's not a fluke, as Cutler has mastered late-game situations over the past two seasons, and that'll be enough to earn Chicago a home victory.

Regardless of what happens, this will be the game of the week.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Date: Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Packers (-1) via Bovada

Prediction: 28-23, Eagles

Earlier this week, I wrote that the Green Bay Packers would defeat the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 10. I rarely go back on my picks, but I made that selection before Aaron Rodgers went down with what has been reported as a fractured clavicle, per Mike Spofford of Packers.com.

Green Bay doesn't often lose at home, and to drop two in a row would be unheard of, but Rodgers' absence could be a crippling blow.

On top of Rodgers being absent, Clay Matthews is questionable, and the trio of Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and Nick Perry are all out, per RotoWorld. Even if Matthews does play, Seneca Wallace will be making his first start since 2011, when he completed 51.4 percent of his passes.

Worst of all, he'll be doing it without two of the best receivers on the team in Cobb and Finley.

As for Philadelphia, Nick Foles' seven touchdowns in Week 9 were a statistical anomaly, but his strong play wasn't. He played poorly against the Dallas Cowboys, but Foles has 1,028 yards, 13 touchdowns and no interceptions on a completion percentage of 62.7 in six total appearances.

Love him or hate him, Foles has been playing well.

That's what it comes down to, as LeSean McCoy cancels out everything that Green Bay's rushing attack has been able to do. The Packers defense could make things interesting, but if it comes down to one quarterback outdueling the other, Foles gets the nod over Wallace every time.

For what it's worth, Philadelphia is 4-1 on the road.