NFL Week 10 Picks: Underdogs That Are Sure to Cover Spread

When looking at the entire listing of lines produced by Vegas oddsmakers, it is easy to get lost in the numbers. Some lines look awfully intriguing. However, it is important to read between the lines when doing so—especially when looking at underdogs that could cover.

An easy example of this is the matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles this week. The opening line pitted the Packers as 10-point favorites. After the loss of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay is now only favored by one point.

Smaller examples of similar situations take place across the NFL each week. It is up to us to find them.

Let's take a look at a few matchups where the shift in the spread over the week bodes well for the underdog.

Oakland Raiders (+7 at New York Giants)

The Raiders are coming off a brutal showing in Week 9 against the Eagles during which they lost by a score of 49-20. Oakland gave up seven total touchdown passes to quarterback Nick Foles.

Looking at the matchup at face value, it seems that Eli Manning would be poised for success in Week 10.

That may not be the case, though.

Up until their matchup against the Eagles, the Raiders defense had been playing lights-out. Even after their terrible effort in Week 9, the Raiders are still ranked 14th in the league in total yards allowed and sixth against the run.

This brings about a formula that has not worked well for Manning this year—the lack of a running game will force an unbalanced offense, which has led to turnovers for Manning and Co.

On the flip side, the Giants must be concerned with quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who is averaging 7.7 yards per carry this season. New York's ninth-ranked rush defense will have its hands full against the explosive third-year quarterback.

The Raiders may not be able to come away victorious, but will certainly keep the game close enough to cover the seven-point spread.

Prediction: Giants by three.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1 at Green Bay Packers)

This aforementioned matchup has had the largest shift in its spread this week. A dramatic nine-point shift on the heels of Rodgers' clavicle injury makes this a very solid selection for an Eagles team that remains an underdog despite its offensive resurgence in Week 9.

Green Bay has been susceptible against the pass this year and is currently ranked 20th overall in that category. After Foles' performance last week, it is very reasonable to believe that he can create success once again in Week 10.

The loss of Rodgers is devastating to the Packers.

Backup quarterback Seneca Wallace is set to replace the All-Pro this week. Wallace was not a very capable replacement in Week 9, completing 11 of 19 passes for 114 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception for a passer rating of 53.4.

Wallace's performance was against a Chicago Bears defense that ranks 23rd against the pass. The Eagles do hold the 32nd overall ranking in the same category, but still have a favorable matchup against the shaky Wallace.

The Eagles will be able to continue their offensive prowess, and Green Bay simply does not have the firepower to keep up.

Prediction: Eagles by six.

Houston Texans (+3 at Arizona Cardinals)

The Texans may have found their quarterback of the future in Case Keenum.

He was electrifying during his Week 9 contest against the Indianapolis Colts, completing 20 of his 34 attempts for 350 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 123.4.

If he was able to put up those kind of numbers against the Colts' 17th-ranked pass defense, he should be able to do the same against the 24th-ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals—especially with another week of experience under his belt.

Arizona's rookie running back, Andre Ellington, burst o n the scene last week with an impressive 154 yards and a score on 15 carries. Unfortunately for him, Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com reports that Rashard Mendenhall will return from injury this week.

This could severely cut into Ellington's touches.

With the most explosive component on the Cardinals offense losing touches, Arizona could see a severe decline in offensive production. Without Ellington to balance out the offense, quarterback Carson Palmer could find himself in trouble against the Texans' top-ranked pass defense.

Keenum will be able to keep his impressive streak alive this week and will lead the Texans to a road victory in Arizona.

Prediction: Houston by nine.

Other Week 10 Picks

Date	Road Team	Home Team	Spread	Pick
Nov. 10	Lions	Bears	PK	DET
Nov. 10	Jaguars	Titans	TEN -13	TEN
Nov. 10	Rams	Colts	IND -9.5	STL
Nov. 10	Bills	Steelers	PIT -3	BUF
Nov. 10	Seahawks	Falcons	SEA -5.5	SEA
Nov. 10	Bengals	Ravens	CIN -1.5	CIN
Nov. 10	Panthers	49ers	SF -6	SF
Nov. 10	Broncos	Chargers	DEN -7	DEN
Nov. 10	Cowboys	Saints	NO -6.5	DAL
Nov. 11	Dolphins	Buccaneers	MIA -2.5	MIA

All spreads are courtesy of CBSSports.com.