Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

It's David vs. Goliath in this mismatch, and Seattle seems unbeatable at home. The Seahawks have covered 19 of their last 25 when laying points at home and are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as a double-digit home chalk.

Tampa Bay, however, has covered six of seven games as a double-digit road pup and gets 18 points here in Week 9.

Point spread: Seahawks opened as 14-point favorites and were bet up to 18 points by Wednesday; the total was 40.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 28.7-10.5 Seahawks

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon is certainly gaining experience quickly. He threw for 275 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in his fourth start for Tampa Bay last Thursday against Carolina. He's now attempted an NFL-record 181 passes in his four games, and his arm could keep the Bucs close.

This is a huge spread, and the Bucs have shown a knack for covering big spreads on the highway. And Seattle looked terrible Monday night against the Rams.

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

Frustration. That's the lone word and attitude for the Seahawks in this one after Monday night's terrible game against the hard-hitting and physical Rams. Fact is, Seattle didn't fail in that one; St. Louis' defense is really good. Now the 'Hawks get the porous Bucs defense in Seattle, where the noise will also help.

Seattle's spread record as big chalk at home, 10-3-1 ATS in 14 games according to the OddsShark.com NFL database, is truly impressive.

Smart Pick

Why not lay the points here when Tampa Bay might be just as bad as the Jaguars, if not worse? Seattle will have the 12th man in the stands, the Buccaneers have to travel across the country, and the Seahawks will have a point to prove. Tampa hasn't traveled far all season, so this one will be trouble.

Trends:

Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on the road.

Seven of eight meetings since 1986 played UNDER the total.

Seahawks 19-6 ATS past 25 games as home favorite.

Seahawks 10-3-1 ATS past 14 games as double-digit home chalk.

Bucs 6-1 ATS past seven games as double-digit road underdogs.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.