Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots: Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

It might be a little hard to believe but New England is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 November home games. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is just 3-8 ATS the last 11 games against the Patriots.

Both teams will try to reverse those trends when they meet in Week 9 action Sunday in Foxboro.

Point spread: Patriots opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 44. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 22.6-14.8 Patriots

Why the Steelers will cover the spread

Pittsburgh started 0-4, then won two straight, but lost at Oakland last week. Offensively, the Steelers stink. They rank 30th in the league in rushing. But defensively, Pittsburgh ranks fourth overall and second against the pass. The hope is that defense will keep the Steelers in games and that the offense gets its act together before it's too late.

The Patriots have been a terrible bet at home in the month of November, going 4-12 ATS over the years.

Why the Patriots will cover the spread

By the numbers New England isn't that impressive, but they did start 4-0, rallied to beat the Saints, rallied to tie the game against the Jets before losing in overtime, and last week rallied to beat the Dolphins. At the moment the Patriots are using a bunch of no-names, but few coaches get more out of guys like that than Coach Belichick.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is predicting a Patriots victory and cover, and for the game to play UNDER its total. But this might be one of those games where you throw out the records and expect a slugfest. Pittsburgh, at 2-5, is already playing for its playoff life. A couple more losses and the Steelers will be taken off life support to start looking ahead to 2014.

And New England hasn't exactly been blowing teams out. Take the points with Pittsburgh.

Trends:

Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing New England.

New England is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh.

Patriots are 4-12 ATS at home in November since 2006.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.