New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

They don't meet very often, but New Orleans is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games against the New York Jets. The Saints will try to keep that trend rolling when they visit a Jets team that has sandwiched two lousy results around a thrilling upset of New England.

Point spread: Saints opened as three-point favorites; the total was 45. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 30.7-12.8 Saints

Why the Saints will cover the spread

New Orleans is now 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 ATS with coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines. His absence was probably the main reason the Saints missed the playoffs last year.

New Orleans is averaging 396 yards and 28 points per game and Rob Ryan's defense is holding foes to 17 PPG. Quarterback Drew Brees is up to his old tricks, with 19 TD passes versus five interceptions.

Why the Jets will cover the spread

With rookie Geno Smith at QB, the Jets have managed to split their first eight games. Offensively, New York has been rather ordinary, but defensively, they rank sixth overall and lead the league in rushing defense.

Also, the Jets are on a roller coaster ride, alternating wins and losses the entire season. Last week, New York got blown out at Cincy, which bodes well for this week if that trend continues.

Smart Pick

Odds Shark's NFL computer is predicting the Saints will win this one, cover and that the game will stay UNDER its total.

New Orleans is looking like the team that went to the Super Bowl a few years ago but is only 1-2 ATS on the road this year. If you're going to have a chance against that Saints offense, you've got to get them outside of that dome.

Take the points with the home dog on this one.

Trends

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing the New York Jets.
Jets OVER is 9-2 in the past 11 seasons before a bye week.
Jets are 6-2 ATS in the past eight seasons prior to a bye week.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury and line move updates.