Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Buffalo has beaten Kansas City four of the last five seasons and covered the spread in all five of those games. But the 8-0 Chiefs seem primed to turn the tables when they pay a visit to the Bills on Sunday.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 41. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 30.5-15.3 Chiefs

Why the Chiefs will cover the spread

Kansas City remains a rather mediocre outfit on offense, ranking 16th overall, but the defense ranks fifth overall and fourth against the pass. The Chiefs also have yet to allow more than 17 points in a game. Also, Kansas City is one of the healthiest teams in the league at the moment, and that always helps. The Chiefs aren't exactly known as road warriors, but they're 3-0 both SU and ATS away from Arrowhead this season.

Why the Bills will cover the spread

Buffalo is doing as well as might be expected, considering its QB situation and its defense. The Bills have beaten three decent teams this season in Carolina, Baltimore and Miami, and their last two losses have come against the Bengals and Saints, two teams that are a combined 12-3 on the year.

QB Thaddeus Lewis, subbing for the injured E.J. Manuel, has completed 60 percent of his passes and only thrown two interceptions.

Smart Pick

OddsShark's predictor computer is calling for KC to win and cover, and for the game to play OVER its total. The Chiefs rank fifth in time of possession, holding the ball for almost 33 minutes per game, while Buffalo ranks 29th in TOP, possessing the ball for less than 28 minutes per game.

NFL teams that win the time-of-possession battle cover the spread almost 70 percent of the time. Give the points and take KC.

Trends:

Chiefs 1-8 ATS past nine games against the Bills.

Eight of past 11 meetings played UNDER the total.

Bills 6-0 SU & ATS at home against the Chiefs since 1986.

Chiefs won and covered three straight as road chalk.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.