USC Trojans vs. Oregon State Beavers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The early betting was moving behind Oregon State in this Pac-12 battle, which has seen the Beavers take the money in five of the past six meetings with USC.

The fact the home team almost always wins in this series is a possible driver of early bets into Oregon State, according to OddsShark.com.

Point spread: Oregon State opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the number was bet to -5.5 as of Tuesday; the total was 52. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 38-31 Oregon State

Why the Trojans can cover the spread

Sometimes in college football, it's the unassuming intangibles that can make all the difference in conference games. Thus, interim coach Ed Orgeron introduced the Trojans to the recorded sound of a chainsaw, the trademark sound effect that roars through Oregon State's Reser Stadium on third downs. Hey, anything helps, right?

Why the Beavers can cover the spread

Something about the Trojans in Corvallis that fires up Oregon State's football team. Remember the 33-30 win over then-No. 3 USC in 2006, and two years later, a 27-21 upset of the top-ranked Trojans? In 2010, OSU plunked the Trojans, 36-7. The Beavers should be pumped after a 20-12 home loss to Stanford snapped their six-game winning streak.

Smart Pick

The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this Pac-12 series, but the Trojans have won 32 of the last 36 meetings with the Beavers. USC has posted 17 shutouts in the series and the Trojans lead the Pac-12 in total defense (317.2 yards per game) and are second in scoring defense (19.2 points per game). The road dog looks live.

Trends:

Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in the past six games vs. USC.

USC is 2-7 SU & ATS as small road dogs (1-3 points) since 1997.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.