Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Football: Spread Analysis, Pick Prediction

Miami has been an underdog of 20 or more points just twice in 15 years, and they covered the spread each time. It takes a confident and brave bettor to give a solid Hurricanes team more than three touchdowns against Florida State.

Point spread: Florida State opened as 21-point favorites; the total was 61. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 45-19 Florida State

Why the Hurricanes can cover the spread

The number is too high. And although intercollegiate athletes are discouraged from acknowledging point spreads, there is no doubt that the Hurricanes have heard that they're three-touchdown underdogs in a Top 10 rivalry clash, and they'll be fired up for this game. They own a 7-1 ATS streak against FSU and want to extend it.

Why the Seminoles can cover the spread

Jameis Winston. It's pretty much cut and dry with the Seminoles as to why they can cover any number, even the ridiculously big one in this game. The quarterback's numbers are astounding, as he sports a 70 percent completion rate, an average of 311 passing yards per game and multiple touchdown throws in every game this season.

Smart Pick

This is Miami-Florida State. Winston's numbers against other teams are irrelevant when it comes to this rivalry game. Remember former FSU quarterback Chris Rix? In games he threw a pass against anyone besides Miami, the Seminoles were 30-9.

When Rix played the Hurricanes, the 'Noles were 0-5. Take the points and run. The OVER may also be a solid pick as FSU has trended that way in recent games as a huge favorite.

Trends:

Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games at Florida State.

OVER is 9-1-1 the past 11 games when the Seminoles are favored by 20+ points.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.