Bruno Boys Fantasy Football Roundtable: NFC North Edition

Now that we are a week into May it is time to really start gearing up for the up and coming 2009 fantasy football season. Over here at Bruno Boys headquarters that means discussions of events happening around the NFL are in full-force.

Today Bruno Boys Cavigs and Bruno Boys Ziza are discussing the NFC North as the Bruno Boys will be breaking down the NFL division by division during the next eight weeks so remember to check back next week.

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NFC North Burning Questions!

1. With the addition of quarterback Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears offense, how will running back Matt Forte's value be affected?

Bruno Boys Cavigs: I don't see the value of Matt Forte shifting in any direction because quarterback Jay Cutleris the new signal caller in Chicago. Forte is multi-dimensional and will get enough touches to produce at a high enough level to be a top-five fantasy football performer. 

If I was in a mock draft today, Forte would be my fourth overall choice behind Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew.

So for those of you thinking that Cutler will take away from Forte's value I'm here to tell you that won't be the case. In fact, Forte is one of the best pass catching running backs in all of football and Cutler will make him better. Don't be surprised if Forte leads the Bears in receptions this season.

Bruno Boys Ziza: Even before the Chicago Bears acquired Jay Cutler they were planning on lessening Matt Forte's work load. This should work in two ways. With Cutler, the opposing defenses won't be able to focus solely on their running game, yet Forte will lose reps running out of the backfield as well.

With Cutler's targets being limited with talent, it would not shock me if Forte became more involved in the passing game out of the backfield. His overall rushing numbers should go down, but his receiving numbers should go up.

Even though I don't expect him to be able to reproduce his outstanding rookie season I do expect him to be a very solid RB1 once again this year.

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2. As they say, where there is smoke, there is fire. The rumors of Brett Favre to the Minnesota Vikings will not go away. What is your take on this situation?

Bruno Boys Cavigs: I know everyone is sick and tired of all the Brett Favre talk that surfaces around this time every year, but I'm a die-hard Favre fan and I hope he spends another year in the NFL.

I do feel he goes about his business the wrong way, but it gives the media something to talk about each day and Favre realizes that all this publicity on the national stage actually helps his chances of landing with an NFL team.

From a fantasy standpoint, if Favre was to sign with the Vikings I would label him as a QB2. There is no question he lacks the talent he once had, but he still has an above-average arm and enough in the tank to produce 20+ touchdown passes to go along with 3,500 passing yards.

Bruno Boys Ziza: I am more than bored with this talk to be honest. Brett Favre was at one time a dynamic NFL quarterback, but the past handful of years his numbers aren't exactly fantasy football greatness.

In fact, if he does end up with the Minnesota Vikings, they don't have the receiving talent around him to push Favre into a QB1 situation, even in deeper leagues.

I would let someone else draft him in your league unless you can get him as a pretty late round flyer for a QB3, and only if he has been with Minnesota during the whole training camp.

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Fantasy Football Preference - NFC North (Based on 12 team, standard scoring leagues)

1. Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers

Bruno Boys Cavigs: RODGERS. In his first year as a starter, Aaron Rodgers finished as the number two overall fantasy quarterback and with all of his offensive weapons returning there is no reason he can't repeat his performance in 2009.

Expect Rodgers to be drafted as and perform as a top-5 fantasy quarterback while Jay Cutler is more of a low-end QB1. You should be able to get 15+ points per week out of Rodgers, while Cutler will be more of a roller coaster ride because the Bears receiving talent is far from superb.

Bruno Boys Ziza: RODGERS. When it comes to straight up talent, I would give Cutler the slight edge, but Rodgers has the receiving talent around him to really be able to put up some fantastic numbers this year.

While Cutler has a shot at being a solid QB1, Rodgers is a for sure thing. When it comes to filling your QB1 spot, reliability is something I look for.
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2. Adrian Peterson vs. Matt Forte

Bruno Boys Ziza: PETERSON. While Peterson is the obvious choice in my mind, the way Forte came on last year it would not surprise me to see Forte have the bigger week here and there.

Either way though, if I had to choose between the two in a fantasy football draft, you really would have to have a ton of reasons to pass on Peterson for Forte. While I consider both top-five RB's, it is Peterson, not Forte that would be wearing my teams colors.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: PETERSON. At times, Matt Forte was a better fantasy football player than Adrian Peterson in 2008, but Peterson is the superior talent in my opinion and he gets the nod in this round-table. He has the better offensive line, is in an run first offense and has the talent to break off a big gain at any time.

Both running backs will get their fantasy points and finish in the top 10 at the running back position but you can expect Peterson to lead the league in rushing and have 10+ touchdowns again in 2009.  

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3. Greg Jennings vs. Calvin Johnson

Bruno Boys Cavigs: JOHNSON. If I could pick both I would, but the choose is Calvin Johnson, aka "Megatron." Without a supporting cast in 2008, Johnson had 1,331 receiving yards and 12 touchdown receptions and he scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of 16 games.

In just his third season, Johnson has yet to reach his highest point and with the Lions bulking up their offense in the 2009 draft it should help him continue his quest towards being the top wide receiver in football.

The only wide receiver I like more than Johnson heading into this season is Larry Fitzgerald.

Bruno Boys Ziza: JOHNSON. Yes, Jennings has the quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, but Johnson has superior talent. Johnson showed last season that he will be able to produce as a WR1 throughout a full season and he will only improve while time passes.

One day Johnson will be thought of in the same way that Randy Moss has been during the past decade, if not even more. At this time though it is safe to say Johnson will be a solid top WR1 for your team this year.

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4. Minnesota DEF vs. Chicago DEF vs. Green Bay DEF

Bruno Boys Ziza: MINNESOTA. I don't believe that any of these three are top shelf for the 2009 season, but they are all solid and have the pieces to improve on what they did last year.

Minnesota is a run-stop team that is in a division that has a solid stable of good running backs. As long as the passing games of their divisional opponents doesn't improve too much this year they will be fine. A low-end DST1 is what I expect. 

Bruno Boys Cavigs: MINNESOTA. No doubt about it the Vikings defense was prone to giving up points in 2008, as they allowed 20.8 per game, but they also made big plays throughout the season.

The Vikings picked off 12 passes, forced 20 fumbles, compiled 45 sacks and scored two defensive touchdowns last season and they return their top three sack performers in Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and Chad Greenway.

I agree with Ziza that they no longer should be considered a top 5 fantasy football defense in 2009, but they will force enough turnovers and bring enough pressure to be in your fantasy football lineup just about every week.

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Bruno Boys’ Quick Hits (Opinions Delivered Harder than Ray Lewis Tackles!)

1. Best addition by a team in the NFC North?

Bruno Boys Ziza:  As much as I am bored of talking about it, the best addition may not have been added yet in Brett Favre. If he ends up in Minnesota, he is going to improve that whole team with his veteran leadership.

But that is just speculation so my choice right now will be Percy Harvin who will make opposing defenses have to focus on his speed at wide receiver which should open up some holes that would not have been there for Adrian Peterson last year. That could give a boost to Peterson's already stellar numbers. 

Bruno Boys Cavigs: Ziza talks about the Vikings potentially signing Brett Favre and I agree that would take the cake as the best signing, but since it hasn't happened yet I won't go that route. Hands down the best addition by any team in the division is the Chicago Bears acquiring Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos.

The Bears haven't had a stable quarterback since the Jim McMahon days and the addition of Cutler gives them a pro-bowl caliber quarterback who is expected to do big things in the Windy City. The Bears fans are thinking Super Bowl and Cutler could be just the guy to lead them to the promise land.

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2. Biggest sleeper from the NFC North?

Bruno Boys Cavigs: It might be a bit early to tell who the biggest sleeper is in the NFC North because the preseason will determine some position battles, but if I had to pick it would be Sage Rosenfels of the Minnesota Vikings.

It appears that Tarvaris Jackson will be the starter in week one for the Vikings, but after a few weeks of him struggling look for Rosenfels to take over and efficiently lead and offense full of play-makers.

Rosenfels has always produced when given the opportunity and with a supporting cast that features Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe he should be able to perform as a QB2 on a consistent basis. That is if the Vikings do not sign free-agent quarterback Brett Favre. 

Bruno Boys Ziza: When thinking of a sleeper I am not looking for someone that will be a solid RB4 or QB2. That being said, I really believe that the Lions' Kevin Smith will continue to progress into a solid top-end RB2 by the end of the season.

He is a work horse with the right attitude and work demeanor to continue progressing on his game. He should be drafted as a low-end RB2 in deeper leagues this year, but I expect him to shoot up the charts as the season goes by.

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3. Biggest possible bust for the NFC North?

Bruno Boys Cavigs: There isn't any big name players that jump out as bust possibilities in the division, but one guy I'd throw up a red flag for is Green Bay Packers running back Ryan Grant.

He was drafted as a RB1 in 2008, but performed more as a RB2 or RB3 and many fantasy owners are projecting him to get back on track this season, but I'd draft with caution.

The Packers have been loud and clear that Aaron Rodgers will be the center piece of the offense and they will use his arm and legs to win football games.

This doesn't mean Grant won't see his fair share of carries, but he will have to fend off touches from DeShawn Wynn and Brandon Jackson and his lack of consistency could be an issue all season long. Target him more as your low-end RB2 or RB3 depending on how many players are in your league.

Bruno Boys Ziza: I have a bust out of this division that I feel very safe about. While I have him rated as a low-end QB1 in deeper leagues, everything is aligned to give Jay Cutler his worst professional season to date as a full-time quarterback.

His wide receivers are no where near what they were in the Denver system and he didn't have to share time with a very solid running back as Chicago has in Forte.

Look for Cutler to have a solid NFL season this year as not everything translates into numbers and stats, but as far as the fantasy football season goes, he is one that I would rather avoid leading my team this season.

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OTHER DIVISION ROUNDTABLES (click to view)

NFC WEST | NFC SOUTH | NFC NORTH | NFC EAST

AFC WEST | AFC SOUTH | AFC NORTH | AFC EAST

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