Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Minnesota Vikings have won and covered their last four games as home dogs, but they'll have their hands full Sunday against rival Green Bay and its new-found success with its running game.

But Green Bay bettors have been burned before when backing the Pack as road chalk and they give up a lot of points here in a division battle.

Point spread: Packers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 50. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 30.8-18.4 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay topped 100 yards rushing for the fifth-straight game last week against Cleveland; the Packers won and covered four of those games. Green Bay is a little banged up, but it's also getting good play from the backups.

Against the Browns, little-used WR Jarrett Boykin, subbing for the injured Randall Cobb, caught eight balls for 103 yards and a touchdown. Also, Green Bay has won six of the last seven games in this border-battle rivalry.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota went with newly acquired Josh Freeman at quarterback Monday night, and while he struggled, completing just 20 of 53 passes, another full week of practice with his new team should help. Also, the Vikes have historically held the upper hand over the Pack at the Metrodome. The home team is also 5-0 ATS the last five games in this series, according to OddsShark.com.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is predicting a Green Bay win and cover, and for the game to stay UNDER its total. The Packers have won three in a row, grinding out victories over the Lions, Ravens and Browns. Meanwhile, Minnesota has lost two straight, scoring a total of just 17 points in the process.

Adrian Peterson has given Green Bay fits, but he can't do it alone. Play the Pack, minus the points.

Trends:

The OVER is 10-2-1 past 13 meetings of these NFC North rivals in Minnesota.

The Packers lost two in a row and five of eight SU as road favorites.

The Vikings won and covered four straight as home underdogs.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.