Projected BCS Rankings 2013-14: Latest Predictions by Web Experts

Mere hours before the release of the 2013 BCS rankings, upsets were abundant throughout the college football landscape. Five of the Top 10 teams in the AP Poll and six of the Top 10 squads in the USA Today Coaches' Poll lost, and the postseason picture was altered in a major way.

The question is: What will the BCS rankings look like now that some of the most heavily favored teams in the nation have fallen?

The No. 3 Clemson Tigers, No. 6 LSU Tigers, No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies, No. 8 Louisville Cardinals, No. 9 UCLA Bruins, No. 11 South Carolina Gamecocks, No. 15 Georgia Bulldogs, No. 20 Washington Huskies and No. 22 Florida Gators all fell on Saturday. Each squad had some form of title dreams, and most were dashed with shocking losses.   

With a high number of ranked teams losing, the soon-to-be-released BCS rankings will look nothing like the previous AP and USA Today polls. Or so we think.

Multiple experts have weighed in on what could be, including BCS Guru Samuel Chi of Bleacher Report and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports. It's difficult to make a precise projection for the most heavily scrutinized computer system in professional sports, but both men have put together some compelling lists.

Here's how the experts believe it will shape up:

Rank	Team	Coaches Poll	Harris Poll	Computers	Pvs
1	Alabama	1	1	2	1
2	Florida State	3	3	1	4
3	Oregon	2	2	3	2
4	Ohio State	4	4	8	5
5	Missouri	7	7	4	13
6	Baylor	5	5	6	10
7	Stanford	6	6	5	11
8	Clemson	9	8	7	3
9	Miami (Fla.)	8	9	10	14
10	UCLA	11	10	9	8
11	LSU	12	12	11	6
12	Texas A&M	10	11	13	7
13	Texas Tech	13	13	19	16
14	South Carolina	14	14	18	12
15	Oklahoma	17	16	15	17
16	Auburn	22	19	12	23
17	Virginia Tech	19	20	16	18
18	Northern Illinois	21	21	17	22
19	Louisville	15	15	25	9
20	Fresno State	18	17	23	19

BCS RANK	TEAM	BCS AVG	HARRIS VOTES	HARRIS PCT	COACHES VOTES	COACHES PCT
1	Alabama	0.9842	2589	0.9958	1545	0.9968
2	Florida State	0.9336	2428	0.9338	1406	0.9071
3	Oregon	0.9333	2501	0.9619	1485	0.9581
4	Ohio State	0.8497	2280	0.8769	1352	0.8723
5	Missouri	0.8114	2041	0.785	1089	0.7026
6	Baylor	0.7514	2172	0.8354	1269	0.8187
7	Stanford	0.7441	1930	0.7423	1152	0.7432
8	Miami (Fla.)	0.7359	2145	0.825	1234	0.7961
9	Clemson	0.6695	1550	0.5962	1011	0.6523
10	Texas Tech	0.5931	1760	0.6769	882	0.569
11	Auburn	0.4941	750	0.2885	817	0.5271
12	LSU	0.4893	1454	0.5592	685	0.4419
13	UCLA	0.4874	1259	0.4842	586	0.3781
14	Oklahoma	0.4695	1185	0.4558	836	0.5394
15	Texas A&M	0.4224	1459	0.5612	743	0.4794
16	Virginia Tech	0.372	814	0.3131	356	0.2297
17	South Carolina	0.3373	1051	0.4042	611	0.3942
18	Fresno State	0.3116	901	0.3465	478	0.3084
19	Oklahoma State	0.2924	860	0.3308	847	0.5465
20	Northern Illinois	0.2617	401	0.1542	234	0.151
21	Louisville	0.2556	1046	0.3985	571	0.3684
22	Michigan	0.177	415	0.1581	268	0.1729
23	UCF	0.1383	238	0.0907	151	0.0974
24	Nebraska	0.1354	414	0.1577	385	0.2484
25	Oregon State	0.0942	168	0.064	91	0.0587

Rising

In both Chi's and Palm's respective rankings, the team that saw the most significant rise was the Missouri Tigers. Previously ranked No. 14 in the AP and USA Today polls, both Chi and Palm have the Tigers at No. 5 in their projected BCS rankings.

Two consecutive blowouts of Top 25 SEC opponents will do that.

Missouri toppled then-No. 7 Georgia 41-26 in Athens on Oct. 12 and followed the win with a 36-17 victory over then-No. 22 Florida on Oct. 19. It won't get any easier with South Carolina up next, but Missouri is one of two remaining undefeated SEC programs.

The other is the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide.

The other teams that made significant jumps are the Florida State Seminoles and Baylor Bears. Baylor is ranked No. 6 in both Chi and Palm's projected rankings, which comes just one week after it was No. 12 in both the AP and USA Today polls.

Florida State dominated then-No. 3 Clemson, using an explosive offense and smothering defense to win 51-14. That victory has both Palm and Chi convinced that the Seminoles will be ranked No. 2 in the BCS rankings.

Everything changed during Week 8, and no teams benefited more than Baylor, Florida State and Missouri.

Falling

As previously alluded to, numerous Top 25 teams from the AP, coaches and projected BCS rankings lost. This opened the door for programs to see significant rises in the rankings, but it also led to squads hitting a steep decline.

No team fell as hard as Georgia.  

The leniency that the rankings had with the Bulldogs was a representation of voters favoring the SEC—sometimes blindly. Despite going 4-2 in its first six games, Georgia was ranked No. 15 in the AP and No. 16 in the coaches poll.

Georgia proceeded to lose to Vanderbilt and is now on the outside looking into both Chi and Palm's Top 20 BCS rankings.

The other notable declining contender is Louisville, which lost to UCF on Oct. 18. Playing a schedule that's void of ranked opponents, Louisville eliminated any slim chance that it had at reaching the BCS National Championship Game.

All in all, it was a bad day for the favorites and a huge one for the hopefuls.

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