Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Houston is reeling with four straight losses and a 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.

This week, the Texans head to Kansas City to challenge the undefeated Chiefs, owners of a solid UNDER trend in recent home games.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites; the total was 40. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 32.7-8.3 Chiefs

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston may look like a sinking ship, but its internals aren't that bad.

The Texans rank seventh in the league in total offense, sixth in rushing and first in total defense.

But over the last five games, Houston quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions, five of which have been returned for touchdowns.

Also, while troubled QB Matt Schaub is questionable with a sore ankle, backup TJ Yates isn't exactly an NFL beginner.

They are desperate to win heading into a bye week and are 8-3 ATS lifetime before a bye, according to OddsShark.com.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

KC is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS for new coach Andy Reid and has shown fortitude in gutting out wins like last week against Oakland, a game that was tied at 7-7 well into the third quarter.

Offensively, the Chiefs haven't been anything special, but they lead the league with a +12 turnover ratio, and their defense ranks fifth overall and first in points allowed.

The Texans have struggled to cover on the road lately.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for KC to blow out Houston and for the game to squeeze OVER its total.

The Texans are 0-6 ATS on the season, but some of that is due to high expectations. Now, with their fans and possibly the betting public giving up on them, perhaps the winds have changed, as they're underrated this week.

Also, KC is 6-0, but the best teams they have played have been the Titans, Cowboys and Eagles, all of whom are just .500 outfits.

Regardless of who starts at quarterback, take Houston and the points.

Trends:

Texans 8-3 ATS lifetime before a bye week

Texans 0-6 ATS past six road games

UNDER is 7-1-1 past nine KC home games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.