Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

While the Buccaneers are on a stellar 11-4 ATS run when visiting Atlanta, the Falcons are also mired in a 3-8-1 spread slide in this series overall. Totals lovers may be interested in knowing the under is on a 10-3 run following an Atlanta bye week.

Point spread: Falcons opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 17.3-12.6 Falcons

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

As much of a train wreck as this team is, it's safe to say the Buccaneers have played one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. Part of the 0-5 run includes losses at the Jets, to the Saints, at the Patriots, and versus the Eagles. Believe it or not, a division rivalry might be just what the doctor ordered.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

This was supposed to be a year the Falcons would get over the hump, after losing in the NFC Championship Game last season. But a 1-4 start has this mistake-riddled team scratching its temple. The defense has been shoddy, but gets a break this week—after a bye—in taking on the futile Buccaneers.

Smart Pick

How Atlanta is not laying double digits on NFL betting lines here is a mystery, with everything that is going on in Tampa Bay—on and off the field. With this game at the Georgia Dome, it's hard not to like the Falcons in what should be a two-touchdown blowout. Also, there's motivation to snap a three-game skid.

Trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Atlanta

Falcons UNDER is 10-3 past 13 seasons after a bye week

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