St. Louis Rams vs. Carolina Panthers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Carolina Panthers have beaten St. Louis eight of the last 10 times they've met, and they've gone 8-2 against the spread in those games against the Rams. Guess who the Panthers host this Sunday, and guess who the computer likes?

Point Spread

Panthers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 42. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction

27.1-17.6 Panthers

Why the Rams Can Cover the Spread

After a 1-3 start, St. Louis has won two straight to get back to .500. Last week, the Rams got out-gained at Houston by 200 yards but forced four turnovers, two of which the defense returned for scores. St. Louis also owns a plus-six turnover differential, and teams that win the turnover battle cover the spread about 75 percent of the time.

Why the Panthers Can Cover the Spread

Carolina bounced back after a weak effort at Arizona to blitz the Vikings at the Metrodome Sunday 35-10. So the Panthers will be anxious for the opportunity to even their record at 3-3 on their home turf. Also, Carolina ranks seventh in the league in rushing and fourth against the run, while the Rams rank 28th in rushing and 30th against the run.

In the NFL, teams that win the ground war cover the spread about 70 percent of the time. They have dominated the Rams over the years at the pay window as well.

Smart Pick

OddsShark's NFL computer is predicting the Panthers to win and cover the spread, and for the game to play over on its total. And all our research backs up that Carolina pick. Very quietly, the Panthers defense ranks third overall, and this version of the Rams, to put it nicely, isn't exactly the “Greatest Show on” anything.

Give the points and take Carolina.

Trends

Rams are 2-8 SU & ATS past 10 vs. Carolina.

Panthers 5-1 ATS past six at home vs. Rams.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.