New England Patriots vs. New York Jets: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

In what has always been a contentious rivalry, the New England Patriots roll in on a 12-2 ATS streak when visiting the New York Jets. On the flip side, the Pats are in a 1-4-1 ATS rut when laying points on the road.

Point Spread

The Patriots opened as six-point favorites; the total was 43.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction

22.1-13.0 Patriots

Why the Patriots Can Cover the Spread

Has anyone else taken notice that the Patriots improved to 5-1 while handing the Saints their first loss of the season last Sunday? And New England is getting it done despite playing all season without their top five pass-catchers from last year. Further, Bill Belichick gets the coaching nod over Rex Ryan.

Why the Jets Can Cover the Spread

The Jets have been inconsistent all season, and yet they're still 3-3 on the year and would pull within one game of the Pats with a win. This game will provide motivation to prepare for a three-week run that also includes games against the Bengals and Saints. It's safe to call this a must-win.

The Pats are just 1-4-1 ATS, however, in six recent games as road chalk, according to OddsShark.com’s NFL database.

Smart Pick

While the Patriots' five wins include victories over these same Jets, the Falcons and the Saints, New York's three wins came against teams that have combined for a 3-13 record: Tampa Bay (0-5), Buffalo (2-4) and Atlanta (1-4). It's hard to argue the revenge factor when the Pats are clearly better.

Trends

OVER is 7-1 past eight meetings

Pats 1-4-1 ATS past six games as road favorite

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.