Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Miami Dolphins have won and covered seven of 10 meetings with the Buffalo Bills, but they are also mired in a 1-8 ATS slide when laying double digits at home going back to 1992.

Point Spread

Dolphins opened as 11.5-point favorites, but it was down to nine as of Wednesday; the total was 41. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction

21.4-18.7 Dolphins

Why the Bills Can Cover the Spread

Buffalo’s offensive strength has been its running game, which is ranked No. 3 in the NFL. And while the Dolphins have been solid against the run, a ground-and-pound attack could keep the ball out of Miami's hands. Couple that with Buffalo's pass rush when the Fins are on the field, and this one stays close.

Why the Dolphins Can Cover the Spread

After opening the season 3-0, the Fins lost two in a row to playoff-contending New Orleans and Baltimore. Good thing for them is they're going into this home game after a bye week and have had time to prepare while the Bills were hosting Cincinnati. Fresh legs and fresh outlook never hurts. They are 7-3 ATS in 10 games vs. the Bills, according to OddsShark.com.

Smart Pick

Buffalo has lost two straight since a knee injury knocked out EJ Manuel, and Thad Lewis suffered an injury late against the Bengals last week, making Buffalo’s passing game even more questionable. It's hard to overlook division games, but Miami should win this one big.

Trends

Buffalo is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games.

The total has gone under in five of Miami's last six games when playing Buffalo.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.