New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots: Spread Analysis and Prediction

The New England Patriots (4-1) have been terrible against New Orleans (5-0) over the years, and the Saints have been woeful as a road underdog. Which trend continues as these teams battle in Week 6 at Gillette Stadium?

The computer says the Saints win outright.

Point Spread 

The Patriots opened as three-point favorites; the total was 49.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction

28.5-21.8 Saints

Why the Saints Can Cover the Spread

The passing game looks to be back intact for Who Dat Nation. Drew Brees completed 29 of 35 pass attempts for 288 yards and two touchdowns, while Jimmy Graham had 10 catches for 135 yards in his fourth consecutive 100-yard game—matching an NFL record for a tight end—in a 26-18 win at Chicago.

They are 7-1 ATS in eight games vs. New England since 1983, according the OddsShark.com NFL database, and have been money in the bank heading into a bye week (8-1-1 ATS past 10 seasons before a bye).

Why the Patriots Can Cover the Spread

The Patriots were held out of the end zone for the first time since a 16-9 loss to the New York Jets more than four year ago, while Cincinnati ended Tom Brady's streak of 52 consecutive games with a touchdown pass. New England won’t be as quiet a second week in a row.

They also see the New Orleans trends of being road losers as underdogs (3-14 SU in their past 17 games in this role).

Smart Pick

The Saints look like a live underdog, and it’s not because of Brees and his receiving corps, but rather an improved defense under coordinator Rob Ryan. Last year, New Orleans had arguably the worst stop unit in the NFL. This season, it’s ranked 11th overall and fourth in allowing just 14.6 points per game.

Trends

Saints 8-1-1 ATS past 10 seasons before a bye week

Patriots 1-7 ATS vs Saints since 1983

Saints just 3-14 SU past 17 games as road dog

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.