Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Baltimore almost never loses at home, and the Green Bay Packers almost never lose to the Ravens. The OddsShark.com NFL picks computer says the latter trend will prevail in Week 6 action.

Point spread: Packers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 27.8-24.2 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Out of almost nowhere, Green Bay has discovered a running game. The Pack ran for 139 yards in a win over the Redskins, 182 yards in a heartbreaking loss to the Bengals and 180 yards in Sunday's win over the Lions. Wow—Aaron Rodgers with a running game. That sounds dangerous.

Also, while Green Bay's defensive stats aren't great, the Packers did just hold Megatron-less Detroit to one meaningless offensive touchdown. The Pack is 4-1 SU vs. the Ravens since 1995.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore turned the ball over five times in losing at Buffalo a couple weeks ago but bounced back to beat the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday, getting back to the basics by out-rushing the Dolphins 133-22. RB Ray Rice is only averaging three yards per carry, but he's been nicked up.

With some better health from him, the Ravens should greatly improve upon their 78 YPG on the ground. They have won 20 of 22 home games and have just a small spread to cover here.

Smart Pick

OddsShark's NFL predictor computer is calling for a 28-24 Green Bay victory, but the Packers found out this week they'll be without LB Clay Matthews for the next month due to a broken thumb. Also, Green Bay is 0-4 both SU and ATS in its last four road games, while Baltimore is 4-0 both SU and ATS over its last four home games.

Take the Ravens as the home dogs.

Trends:

Packers are 4-1 SU and ATS vs. Ravens since 1995.

Packers are 8-3 ATS past 11 games in October. Baltimore is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.