NFL Predictions Week 6: Highlighting Best Picks Against the Spread

Week 6 features some big spreads. Typically, I try to avoid big favorites. Those bets can get dicey in the late stages of a game when you're pulling for a team to tack on more points and that team is completely content to grind the ball out. 

This week is a little different, however. I'm going to jump on a few of the big favorites, and I'm confident that will lead to big paydays. 

Point Spreads via FootballLocks.com. 

New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Pick: Bears -8

There appears to be a majority sentiment that the Giants aren't as bad as they've been playing. Given this team's recent past, it's understandable. The Giants have come back from the abyss before.

However, they won't be coming back this year. There are too many holes. The Giants can only do one thing well, and that's throw the football—and they can't even do that consistently.

Meanwhile, the Bears have dropped two straight after winning their first three, and Jay Cutler has been scuffling. He's chucked six picks this year. However, he is coming off of a solid, interception-free game against the Saints. 

Also, the Giants are just 21st in opponent interceptions thrown percentage. They also hold the dubious distinction of not keeping a team under 31 points yet this year. 

The Bears' opportunistic defense is 12th in that same category, and they are also adept at causing fumbles. 

The mistake-prone Giants will not be able to overcome this. 

 

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns

Pick: Browns +2.5

The Cleveland Browns are my lone underdog selection on this list, and they aren't going to need the points. I actually recommend betting on the money line for this game.

Cleveland has won three straight since trading Trent Richardson, and it's been playing solid football. That begins on the defensive side. The Browns rank seventh in pass defense and eighth in rush defense.

Despite the valuable addition of Reggie Bush, it is the mark on pass defense that will serve the Browns well in this one.

Detroit's passing ranks sixth in the league and remains the strength of this team. However, the entire offense was terrible last week while scoring just nine points against a bad Green Bay Packers defense.

It must be mentioned that all-world receiver Calvin Johnson missed that game. He may be back for this contest. However, the Lions will still have a difficult time getting on track against a quality defense and playing on the road against a team that has had extra rest. 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Pick: Broncos -27.5

The Broncos are favored by four touchdowns, and this bet still feels like a no-brainer to me. I'm sorry Jacksonville Jaguars, you are just that bad. 

The Broncos suffered some lapses in defense last week while allowing the Cowboys to score 48, however, the offense looked as good as ever while scoring 51. And it is hard to see how this Jaguars offense will find much success against any defense. 

Let me just sum things up this way. If the Broncos equaled their season low in points scored and the Jaguars equaled their season high in points scored, the Broncos would win this game 37-20. 

The Jaguars will be lucky to muster 14 points in this one, and the Broncos are dropping 40 points without even trying.