Full Week 5 Stat Predictions for Every New England Patriots Offensive Player
Coming off an impressive road win against the Falcons, the Patriots head into this weekโs tilt with the Cincinnati Bengals looking to keep building momentum offensively. They had their most complete offensive performance of the season against a woeful Atlanta defense and would normally face a much stiffer test against the Bengals this week, but Cincinnati enters the weekend with several key players injured.
Cornerbacks Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick both missed Week 4 and Hall has yet to practice as of Thursday night. Safety Reggie Nelson also missed their last game, but like Kirkpatrick, has been practicing on a limited basis according to this week's injury report.
Linebacker Vontaze Burfict also missed practice with a neck injury, further clouding his status for this week.
The Patriots have injuries of their own as Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are still limited in practice according to the teamโs injury report.ย Receivers Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson are also dinged up.ย
In a surprise development, running back Steven Ridley has been sidelined all week with a knee injury, so the Patriots ground game is operating with a skeleton crew.
Before diving into this weekโs projections, itโs time for some disclosure on how accurate I was in last weekโs effort.
I projected Tom Brady for 349 yards and three scores. He fell short with 316 yards and two touchdowns.
Ridley was projected for 83 yards and a score on 19 carries. I wasnโt even close as he notched just 53 yards on 11 totes and remains without a touchdown this season.
I was almost perfect in projecting Brandon Bolden for 14 yards on 5 carriesโhe had six attempts for 17 yardsโbut I drastically overestimated his contributions as a receiver. The Patriots did run a few screen plays like I thought, but it was Edelman, not Bolden who benefited.
Fellow running back LeGarrette Blount performed pretty much as expected, relying on one long run of 47 yards to bolster his stat line which otherwise included eight carries for 17 yards.
My receiver projections went out the window once Dobson got hurt, and while I correctly projected Edelman to lead the team in receptions, he was much more of a vertical threat than I anticipated, totaling 118 yards on seven catches.ย For what itโs worth, I did project rookie Josh Boyceโs first NFL catch.
The other projection of note was tight end Zach Sudfeld, who I projected for a pair of catches.ย Not only did he fail to record a reception, he botched an onside kick to give Atlanta life late in the game and was waived this week.
Now, on to the projections!
All statistics courtesy of NFL.com
Quarterback: Tom Brady
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Coming off a 316 yard, 2 touchdown effort against the Falcons last week, Brady should enjoy another fine outing against the Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday.
Not that the Bengals canโt defend the pass. On the contrary, they do an admirable job, limiting opposing offenses to 235 YPG through the air and allowing six touchdowns through four games. Unfortunately for the Bengals, however, theyโll likely be without top cornerback Leon Hall who didnโt practice on Thursday. Last yearโs first-round pick Dre Kirkpatrick usually starts alongside Hall, but he and safety Reggie Nelson both missed last weekโs game and have been limited in practice this week.
Despite their impressive overall numbers against opposing quarterbacks, the Bengals do allow roughly 38 pass attempts per game. If Brady heaves 38 passes against Cincinnatiโs banged up secondary he will blow those averages out of the water.
Another factor in Bradyโs statistical favor is the doubt surrounding running back Steven Ridleyโs status.ย Ridley hasnโt practiced all week so unless he takes the field on Friday, heโll be a major question mark this weekend. If the teamโs leading rusher canโt go, Brady and Co. will need to shoulder an even greater load offensively.
Heโs growing visibly more comfortable with his receiving corps with each passing week and should be able to use a mix of play-action, screens, quick passes and delayed handoffs to mitigate Geno Atkins and the Bengals pass rush.
This is based on absolutely nothing other than a gut feeling, but I think at some point the Patriots will find themselves on the verge of scoring and Brady will pull off his patented short-yardage plunge followed by his best attempt at a Gronk Spike.
Projection: 30-of-41, 325 YDS, 2 TD, 0 INT; 1 CAR, 1 YD, 1 TD
Quarterback: Ryan Mallett
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Bradyโs backup hasnโt seen the field this season. I donโt expect that to change this week.
Projection: N/A
Running Back: Stevan Ridley
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As of this writing, Ridley hasnโt practiced at all this week thanks to a knee injury. Even if he practices on Friday heโll likely earn a โquestionableโ tag for Sundayโs game. With a 4-0 record, the Patriots donโt need to force the issue, especially since he hasnโt been particularly effective this season. The call here is that he doesnโt suit up.
Projection: N/A
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Running Back: LeGarrette Blount
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With Ridley presumably out, Blount should be in line for his heaviest workload of the season. Obviously projecting his stats isnโt as simple as just adding Ridleyโs per-game production to his own, but thatโs a logical place to start.
| Ridley | 47 CAR | 174 YDS | 3.7 YPC | 11.75 CAR/Game | 43.5 YPG |
| Blount | 34 CAR | 155 YDS | 4.6 YPC | 8.5 CAR/Game | 38.75 YPG |
| Total | 81 CAR | 329 YDS | 4.06 YPC | 20.25 CAR/Game | 82.25 YPG |
Based on Blountโs production thus far and the possibility of inheriting Ridleyโs carries, we can pencil him in for somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 carries.
Brandon Bolden will eat into Blountโs touches, but with just nine rushing attempts compared to Blountโs 34, he clearly resides behind Blount on the depth chart.
The Patriots as a team average 30.5 rushing attempts per contest, and with their receiving corps even more dinged up than usual, this would seem an ideal opportunity to pound the rock with increased frequency. But Cincinnatiโs hale and hearty run defense has stifled opponents to the tune of 3.8 YPC and 396 yards through four games. Only Johnathan Franklin of the Green Bay Packers has eclipsed to 100-yard threshold against Cincy whose secondary is vulnerable thanks to numerous injuries. So while the Patriots wonโt abandon the run, this has the makings of a Tom Brady quarterback clinic.
The Bengals canโt afford to stack the box and expose their secondary to Bradyโs wrath, so Blount should have plenty of room to run whenever he does get the ball.
Projection: 17 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Running Back: Brandon Bolden
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Like Blount, Bolden should see an increased workload with Ridley nursing a knee injury. With the Patriots likely mounting an assault against the Bengalโs nicked-up secondary, I actually expect Bolden to see more snaps than Blount since heโs a far superior receiver and superb pass-protector. He just wonโt log as many carries as the aurochs from Oregon.
Bolden also wonโt post huge numbers as a receiver either. The most receiving yards the Bengals have allowed to an opposing running back was in Week 1, when Matt Forte caught four passes for 41 yards. Last time I checked, Bolden is no Matt Forte.
Cincinnatiโs emerging star linebacker, Vontaze Burfict, missed Thursdayโs practice with a neck injuryโmaking him questionable, at best, for Sundayโs tilt. That should make things a bit easier for Bolden in the flat, but unless New Englandโs receivers suffer a setback and donโt play, heโs in store for a solid, albeit unspectacular game.
Projection: 8 CAR, 36 YDS, 0 TD; 4 REC, 27 YDS, 0 TD
Running Back: Leon Washington
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Washingtonโs been a complete non-factor this season, so if he canโt find his way onto the field with Ridley down for the count, he probably never will. Itโs worth noting that heโs battling a thigh injury of his own and was a limited participant in Thursdayโs practice.
Iโm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for one more week and project him for a pair of touches. If he doesnโt sniff any action this week, Iโll be projecting goose eggs for him the rest of the way until he proves me wrong.
Projections: 1 CAR, 3 YDS, 0 TD; 1 REC, 8 YDS, 0 TD
Fullback: James Develin
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Projecting fullbacks is a futile effort, but that wonโt stop me from trying. Develin spent some time at tight end this preseason, and with rookie Zach Sudfeld getting the ax, he could slide into that spot. The Patriots could also reward his versatility with a goal-line carry, but I wouldnโt bet on it.
Projection: N/A
Wide Receiver: Danny Amendola
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Anticipation is building as Amendola inches closer to a return, but if last week taught me anything itโs that the Patriots wonโt play him until heโs absolutely ready, nor should they. If he plays, he should post nice totals, but unless I hear otherwise between now and Sunday, Iโm assuming heโs out.
Projection: N/A ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย
Wide Receiver: Julian Edelman
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Operating under the assumption that Amendolaโs out for at least one more game, Edelman once again finds himself locked in as Bradyโs go-to possession receiver. As usual, look for the Patriots to line him up all over the formation and find ways to get him the football in open space.
Edelman excels at quick timing patterns and receiver screens where he can put his elusiveness to good use. He should have plenty of space in which to do just that as the Bengals are forced to play off the line of scrimmage to help their beleaguered secondary overcome injuries and avoid a rash of downfield completions by Tom Brady.
Edelman wonโt be completely neglected downfield, but he should do most of his damage on yards after the catch.
Projection: 8 REC, 91 YDS, 0 TD
Wide Receiver: Kenbrell Thompkins
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After torching the Falcons for 127 yards and a touchdown on six catches last week, Thompkins is firmly entrenched as the starter opposite Edelman, and has likely earned a similar role even when Amendola returns.
Chris Collinsworth's Chad Johnson comparison is looking more apt by the week.
Thompkins has been limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury, but barring a significant setback should be good to go in Sunday. Look for Brady to find him early and often in the midst of the Bengals' beat up secondary.
If Leon Hall were healthy, he would likely shadow Thompkins, but with Hall injured, Thompkins will draw either Dre Kirkpatrick or Pacman Jones. Kirkpatrick didnโt play last week due to injury and is questionable after being limited in practice all week, so if he plays, thatโs a matchup the Patriots can exploit.
To help combat Thompkinsโ physical style of play, the Bengals could use hard-hitting safety Reggie Nelson to help out in coverage. Nelson also missed last weekโs game, but was upbeat during an interview with the NFL Networkโsounds like heโll play.
After opening so many eyes in Atlanta, Thompkins will draw more attention from the defense this time around. While he should still have success, donโt expect him to match his lofty numbers from last week.
Projection: 7 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Wide Receiver: Aaron Dobson
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Dobson underwhelmed last week and ultimately left the game after taking a vicious hit in the end zone, but heโs back on the practice field which is a great sign for his availability this week.
The Boston Herald reportsย Dobsonโs been sporting the black jersey in team drills, which is awarded weekly to the most outstanding players from the previous weekโs practices, so heโs clearly making strides even if the numbers donโt show it yet.
With Thompkins commanding more attention and Cincinnatiโs health issues, Dobson should find himself in plenty of single coverage. Even with safety help over the top, Dobson should be able to spring free at least once on Sunday and continue his upward march in the Patriots offense.
Safety Taylor Mays has been caught yielding outside position several times this season, including this touchdown to Brownsย tight end Jordan Cameron. Look for Dobson to capitalize on his matchups and post a nice stat line.
Projection: 6 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Wide Receiver: Josh Boyce
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The rookie from TCU made his first appearance in the box score last week and will have every opportunity to build on that this week.
His game-changing speed makes him a threat downfield as well as in the short area and screen game.ย Cincinnatiโs thin secondary will have a hard time accounting for him as the fourth option in the passing attack. Even when accounted for heโs capable of simply running past the coverage.
Projection: 3 REC, 38 YDS, 0 TD
Wide Receiver: Austin Collie
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ESPN Boston's Field Yates reported the Patriots signed Collie to bolster their receiving corps but heโs unlikely to see much, if any, action after signing on mid-week.
Projection: N/A
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski
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I projected Gronkowski for a few catches and a score last week after reports indicated he would suit up. Well, he was inactive and I learned my lesson. Until the Patriots list him as anything better than โquestionable,โ weโll just have to wait until he actually sees the field before counting on him for any production.
Projection: N/A
Tight End: Michael Hoomanawanui
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The tight end position has been a black hole for the Patriots this year, and it just got bleaker with the team announcing preseason darling Zach Sudfeld is no longer in the mix after being waived (per Patriots.com).
The Bengals are vulnerable to tight ends and yield an average of 5.5 receptions and 56 yards to the position. Theyโve also allowed a pair of scores to tight ends, but the Patriots simply donโt have the personnel to exploit any advantage they might have.
Iโm projecting the Hoo-man to lead the position, but thatโs not saying much.
Projection: 1 REC, 4 YDS, 0 TD
Tight End: Matthew Mulligan
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Mulligan made good last week by catching a one-yard touchdown, but didnโt see much action and has otherwise been a complete non-factor. Look for that to continue in Week 5.
Projection: N/A
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