New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Atlanta is in deep trouble in the deep South at 1-3, but the Falcons get an extra day to prepare for the New York Jets (2-2) in the Week 5 Monday Nighter.

The Falcons were getting lots of early betting action at online sportsbooks, and the line was climbing towards double digits.

Point spread: Falcons opened as 7-point favorites; the total was 45.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

1. 18.2-15.8 Falcons

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York has exceeded expectations so far this season, at least until Sunday's loss at Tennessee. The Jets, with a rookie starting at quarterback, beat Tampa outright as home dogs to open the season, then covered as 10-point dogs at New England, then covered as short favorites against Buffalo.

Sometimes it's good to play against the spread when very little is expected of you.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta may be 1-3 this season, but it's also 34-6 all-time at home with Matty Ice behind center. The Falcons might be in early-season desperation mode; they're already three games behind New Orleans in the NFC South, and they can't afford to fall any farther back.

Also, the Ryan-to-Gonzalez combination just clicked for 149 yards and two scores against New England. The Saints are heading into a bye week, a situation where they have been profitable in Vegas (7-2 ATS past nine seasons, according to OddsShark.com’s NFL database).

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is predicting Atlanta to win a tight, low-scoring game, so maybe it's giving the Jets some props. Also, New York owns advantages with its running game and against the run. Nine-and-a-half points seems like a lot for a team like the Falcons to cover right now. Take those points with the Jets.

Trends:

Falcons 7-2 ATS past 9 seasons before a bye week

Five of past six meetings played UNDER the total

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.