Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

This is not a game on the schedule that many experts would have predicted as a 4-0 team against a 3-1 team. But that’s the situation when the Tennessee Titans (3-1) host the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) in Week 5 betting action.

Can one surprising team surprise the other in a game that is basically a coin toss in Las Vegas?

Point spread: Chiefs opened as one-point favorites; the total was 41. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 32.0-24.6 Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is 4-0 and rolling under new head coach Andy Reid, coming off a 31-7 victory over the Giants. Offensively the Chiefs, with Alex Smith at QB, are running efficiently, but it's been on defense where they've shined, ranking seventh overall. The unit is second against the run and holding foes to a total of 41 points through four games.

The Chiefs have won six of nine meetings with the Titans over the years.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee is off to a 3-1 start and coming off a convincing victory over the Jets. The Titans have outrushed opponents this year by a 120-99 yards-per-game margin and are 3-0-1 ATS over their last four home games. And while they lost QB Jake Locker last week to a nasty hip injury, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't a bad replacement option.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is predicting a 32-25 Kansas City victory, but this game should be closer than that. Yes, the Chiefs are off to a great start for Reid, but this is still a team that went 2-14 last year. How much better can they possibly be?

Take the points with the small home-dog Titans.

Trends:

Seven of past nine meetings played OVER the total.

Tennessee is 3-6 SU in its last nine games when playing Kansas City.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.