Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The New Orleans Saints have enjoyed the Monday Night Football spotlight, while the Miami Dolphins have wilted on the national stage. Does Week 4 wagering action at Mercedes-Benz Superdome support the theory that the Saints are safe bets at minus-7?

Point Spread

The Saints opened as 5.5-point favorites, now it's at minus-7. The over/under was 48. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Pick

28-24.6 Saints

Why the Dolphins Can Cover the Spread

Miami is far from a lock here, but they have been a very solid bet early in the season the past two years. They bring a 5-1 ATS mark in six recent September games and are being underestimated by Vegas bettors—and possibly the Saints as well. They are 3-0 with wins over the Colts and Falcons so far.

Why the Saints Can Cover the Spread

New Orleans is always tough at home, and their 3-0 start has shown that Drew Brees can still bring the noise. They are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 home games and are a tough matchup on paper for the visiting Dolphins.

Smart Pick

While the computer has Miami covering the spread here, all four analysts at OddsShark.com were picking the Saints to cover seven points tonight. One was predicting a Broncos-style rout.

Trends

Miami is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road.

The Saints are 5-1 ATS past six Monday Night Football games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.