Why Dwight Howard-Omer Asik Tandem Can Work for Houston Rockets

Omer Asik was Houston’s second-best player last season, standing out as far and away the team’s most important defensive presence.

But instead of gratifying the 27-year-old, still-improving anchor with an assurance he’d be an important part of their future, the Rockets (correctly) signed Dwight Howard, a franchise-elevating talent.

Despite all Asik gave Houston in his first year with the team, their decision to heavily pursue Howard in free agency this summer was a no-brainer. When healthy, he’s one of the world’s best overall players, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year who’s been tapped to play in seven straight All-Star games. 

The Rockets will try to cram as much talent as possible on the court at once—as often as possible—so lineups that feature Asik and Howard at the same time, as unconventional as they may look, will be given the time and opportunity to work out their kinks.

This is no longer about Asik the individual, because if he’s playing 15 minutes a night as Howard's backup, Houston is underutilizing his skill, and championship contenders are very rarely good enough to win it all leaving talent like that on the table.

Perpetual spacing issues are the No. 1 reason most are skeptical the two can coexist for extended stretches, but there are subtle ways around that that we’ll get to later. First let’s touch on a few areas where the Rockets will almost certainly benefit having two very large, very fast (for their size) players on the floor.

Asik is a studious defender who contests shots from big men who can shoot (say, Serge Ibaka) and leaves those who can't alone (say, Kendrick Perkins).

For someone his size, Asik is more than comfortable out on the perimeter. But last season, whenever an opposing team dragged him out of the paint, Houston was susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds. 

Playing beside Howard, the momentary hesitation Asik used to have before lunging even further from the basket to contest a shot will no longer exist. It's a trust thing. Both centers love grabbing balls off the glass and living in the paint, but if they're fully committed to defending away from the basket, knowing there's a good chance the other one will get his hands on the rebound, it'll make Houston's defense even tighter.

With Asik and Howard, the Rockets will also have two elite post defenders to match up against opposing teams (except the Memphis Grizzlies) that only have one viable post threat. 

Having Asik defend the likes of Andrew Bogut, Marc Gasol (or Zach Randolph), Tim Duncan, DeMarcus Cousins, Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin will help ease Howard's man-to-man responsibility. Theoretically, it will also enable him to take over games as the menacing weak-side defender he's always been, while staying out of foul trouble.

Another situation where Asik and Howard should have no problems playing together is in the face of basketball’s most common plan of attack, the pick-and-roll.

We know how dominant a healthy Howard is here, but last season Asik showed equal command. He slides his feet, cuts off penetration and is quick enough to recover back to his original man, whether he’s popping or rolling. Be it Asik or Howard coming up to guard the screener, the Rockets should be able to defend pick-and-rolls with two players instead of three, allowing everyone else to stay at home on the three-point line.

When Asik was off the floor last year, Houston’s opponents averaged 23.1 three-point attempts per 48 minutes. When he sat, that number quietly slid to 21.0, per NBA.com/Stats (subscription required). That's a possible six-point swing. Opponents were also 3.0 percent better from the corners with Asik spectating from the bench. Here’s a clip against the San Antonio Spurs showing why.

As Tony Parker and Tim Duncan run a pick-and-roll, Asik is able to help and recover before Chandler Parsons has to drop down and help off his man. In this particular play it's all for naught, because Duncan is one of the most skilled low-post players who ever lived. But over the long run, Houston's ability to limit open threes will play out as a major advantage. 

Now, onto the other side of the ball: Can Asik overcome the logistical dilemmas that are sure to come with playing next to Howard? Courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, here are their shot charts from last season. First Howard, then Asik. 

As you can see, neither possesses any range whatsoever. (Also, a shot chart can hardly do this statement justice, but Asik and Howard have the delicate touch of a jackhammer.)

Last season the closest player Houston had on their roster resembling Howard (besides Asik) was Greg Smith, a tall interior presence with virtually no feel and a comfort zone that didn’t extend beyond the paint. Smith and Asik shared the floor for 228 minutes last season. Only 30 came before the All-Star break, when the Rockets shot 38.5 percent, according to NBA.com/Stats.

Post-All-Star break they shared the court 198 minutes, appearing in five more games and shooting 49.5 percent from the floor. One hundred and sixty five of those minutes came in nine games in April, when Houston scored 112.5 points per possession and held opponents to 98.8.

The sample sizes here are pretty small but decidedly impressive and hopeful. Yes, with Howard and Asik, two fifths of Houston’s lineup won't be able to score consistently without assistance. But part of why spacing may not be as great of a concern in this particular context is the fast pace at which Houston still figures to play and the complimentary pieces that will fill out the lineup.

Getting stops (the Rockets will get plenty), then running up the floor with any combination of three capable ball-handlers who’re more than capable of collapsing an unsettled defense is a recipe for success. It’s here where they should be able to create open threes and quick post-ups (for Howard only).

James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons are also very good at finding cutters when doubled with a live dribble. By having them screen for one another (making perimeter players defend screeners in pick-and-rolls is always a good decision) and forcing help from either Asik or Howard’s man near the basket, lobs, dump-offs and wide-open threes can be created at will.

Here's Lin and Harden running a side pick-and-roll with Asik and Smith both on the court.

And here's a chart detailing where Houston most often shot the ball last year when Smith and Asik shared the floor. Notice, it didn't stop them from taking, and making, threes.

A lot is said about Asik’s ability to set bone-crushing screens on the ball, and the compliments are well-deserved. But he may be even more effective setting back screens on the weak side, freeing up shooters to move through the paint or beyond the three-point line. Imagine this happening moments before Howard sets a high screen on the ball then darts towards the rim.

How about what could potentially become the league’s most devastating stagger screen, with Parsons, Harden, Francisco Garcia or Patrick Beverley weaving their way to an open look at the basket.

What if as the season goes on, Houston’s offense doesn’t show improvement with Asik and Howard on the court? After all, having both on one roster is a bit like serving two turkeys on Thanksgiving. What many would expect Houston to eventually do, much like my mom would with a second turkey, is make an exchange for something a bit more complementary—a capable stretch four, more three-point shooters, some borderline-elite wing defense (mashed potatoes, stuffing, cranberry sauce, ham, collard greens, corn, etc.) could be in the cards.

If for whatever reason Asik is unable to coexist on the floor with Howard, he instantly becomes one of the most valuable commodities on the trade market. Players like Ryan Anderson (Howard’s former teammate), LaMarcus Aldridge (pending how well Portland is playing and who else Houston is willing to give up) and Pau Gasol (unlikely, but not impossible) would be more natural fits in Houston’s starting lineup—players who flatter Howard’s game on offense and are more capable with the ball on their own—while Asik is someone defenses don’t lose sleep over.

Because his contract was signed using the Arenas provision, moving Asik is a complicated endeavor. His cap number remains approximately $8.3 million per year over the next two seasons, but that’s different from how Houston’s ownership is actually paying him. Asik is due $5.225 million this season and a hearty $14.89 million the following year. If another team’s general manager wants Asik, he has to convince his owner that paying the 27-year-old far more than he’d be worth on the open market is a good idea, even though his cap number would remain around $8.3 million.

And so, as a trade asset, Asik is still valuable with regards to improving Houston’s probability of winning their first title in nearly 20 years. But the team would obviously prefer to see Asik and Howard build chemistry instead. Having two Goliaths in the middle is rare and beneficial in so many ways. Size matters in basketball, and an Asik/Howard tandem has the potential to create matchup problems against each of the league’s other elite teams. (Think Asik might come in handy against an incapacitated Miami Heat frontcourt?)

Over the course of a seven-game series, will defenses respond by disallowing all driving lanes for Harden and Lin (the most important aspect of Houston’s read-and-react style offense) by swarming the paint? It’s certainly a hazard Houston will have to withstand and answer. But ways around it exist, and they don’t need to revolve around Asik and Howard playing off each other directly.

Given the overall versatility Houston has on its roster and the overwhelming potential an Asik-and-Howard tandem has protecting the rim and squeaking the glass clean, the various issues that could arise when Houston has the ball may be overcome. Or, maybe they won't. One thing we do know is that how Asik and Howard coalesce on both ends will be a huge storyline for the Rockets this season, and their shot at a title may hinge on it.