New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Spread Analysis and Pick Predictions

Kansas City has already won more games in a charmed 2013 than it did in 2012, but the fate of the Chiefs will hinge on their reaction to adversity.

That could come Sunday against the 0-3 Giants, who surely are not a bad as their 38-0 loss in Carolina. The Chiefs are 3-0, but hardly a dominating 3-0.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as four-point favorites; the total was sitting at 44 early Tuesday (Line updates and Matchup report).

OddsShark.com computer says: 33-2, Chiefs

Why the Giants can cover the spread

New York boasts offensive weapons that have misfired all season. But the Chiefs are far from a dominant squad, and the Giants have pounded on them over the years (7-0 ATS since 1988).

Head coach Tom Coughlin knows Andy Reid’s tendencies and should be able to craft a game plan to keep his Giants close.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs have already beaten two NFC East teams and have a third primed for the slaughter. While the Giants remain a dangerous foe, the Chiefs are building momentum and developing an expectation of winning.

Even though they have struggled as a home favorite, this is a new Chiefs team that can easily cover here.

Smart Pick

The computer was excellent in Week 3 while making some highly unusual predictions, but 33-2? That is almost identical to KC’s 28-2 win over the Jaguars in Week 1. The handicapping theory of "must-win" is mainly garbage, but you have to expect the Giants to bring their best effort here to avoid an 0-4 hole.

Their domination of the Chiefs over the years, and their immaturity as a home favorite, means the Giants can be good value at plus-4 here.

Trends:

Giants 7-0 ATS, 6-1 SU vs Chiefs since 1988

Chiefs 0-7 ATS, 1-6 SU past 7 games as home favorite

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.