New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

New England is 3-0 but played its first solid game in Week 3. With TE Rob Gronkowski possibly returning, Tom Brady gets one of his reliable targets back.

The Atlanta Falcons opened as small home underdogs, but the money quickly swung them to -1.5 by Tuesday. Atlanta is struggling with injuries and could be facing the Pats at just the wrong time.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as two-point favorites, but the line swung to -1.5 in favor of the Falcons; the total was sitting at 49.5 early Tuesday. (Line updates and Matchup report).

OddsShark.com computer says: 26-17, Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England covered its first spread in Week 3 and will be tough, whether as a small dog or small chalk. Falcons RB Steven Jackson is injured and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and starting defensive end Kroy Biermann are expected to miss the game, opening the door a bit wider for Brady to sneak off with a victory.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta needs a big effort from their backups, but they are more than capable of handling the Patriots, especially if New England reverts to its Week 1-2 form. They are 23-6 SU in their past 29 home games and always seem to cover at home early in the season.

Smart Pick

The computer likes the Patriots, and it's hard to argue with the Falcons injuries and Patriots seemingly hitting their stride. New England has won and covered the past three meetings with Atlanta, but we see the Falcons rebounding from a tough loss to Miami and continuing their home domination in the month of September.

Trends

Falcons 14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS in 15 September home games since 2003.

Pats 6-1 ATS past seven as road underdog of 1-3 points.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark–follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.