NFL Picks Week 2: Teams Guaranteed to Beat the Odds This Weekend

Big point spreads for home teams in Week 2 are confusing after only nine of the 16 home teams won their season opening matchups.

It’s still early, so a lot of the preconceived notions heading into the season will continue to affect lines until teams can consistently demonstrate an ability to compete, especially on the road.

Oddsmakers are going with proven track records when making this week’s lines. All that means for you is that, if you play it smartly, you have the chance to make some good money again this week.

Here are my picks against the spread for Week 2 along with three locks to cover the early-week spreads.

NEW YORK JETS (+11) at New England Patriots

No, I’m not delusional; the New York Jets don’t appear to be the team everyone expected to roll over and die this season. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith actually played well despite the lack of an effective running game against a pretty good Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.

And the New England Patriots almost suffered a massive let down against another rookie quarterback in their opener. Plus, they’ll be without running back Shane Vereen who broke a bone in his wrist that will keep him sidelined for a couple of weeks, per FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer:

Top receiver Danny Amendola is also looking like a scratch for the Pats on Thursday night, along with tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Zach Sudfeld, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport:

Rex Ryan knows Bill Belichick as much as he knows quarterbacks. Oh, wait, that’s a terrible comparison. Nevertheless, the point remains valid.

The Jets look apt enough, at least defensively, to keep this game close. They’ll also benefit from the Pats’ susceptibility to the occasional scamper by a quarterback. Look for a narrow Pats win, but assuming they’ll win by 11 or more points is outrageous.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+8.5) at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans had their way with the Tennessee Titans in 2012, winning each of their matchups by 14 points or more. However, the visitors look much more sound defensively thanks to some key offseason additions.

Do you know what team didn’t look sound in Week 1? The Houston Texans. While the Titans were busy shutting down the Pittsburgh Steelers to 32 rushing yards, the Texans were fighting their way back from a 21-point second-half deficit against the San Diego Chargers.

Sure, the Titans don’t have a quarterback like Philip Rivers behind center, but they do have more offensive weapons than the team that put up 28 points against the Texans in Week 1. If their defense can slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate, the Titans have a chance to win a very important early AFC South matchup.

Now, I don’t think Tennessee wins this game even with its offseason improvements and momentum from a win over the Steelers. The Texans might win by a touchdown, but don’t expect a blowout like the two we saw last year.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+7) at Green Bay Packers

One week after drama surrounding both teams and their involvement in the NFL’s mobile-quarterback saga, these two teams get to meet in a pivotal Week 2 affair. Since 1990, teams that have started the season 0-2 haven’t fared well when it comes to making the postseason, per ESPN Stats & Info:

Despite bottling up Colin Kaepernick for much of last week’s game, the mobile signal-caller torched the porous Green Bay secondary for over 400 yards passing. Robert Griffin III will likely look at his performance for windows to do the same as he'll likely avoid testing his knee early in the season by scrambling frequently.

If he performs like he did in the second half against Philadelphia, the Redskins should be able to go blow-for-blow with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ high-scoring offense. Getting the running game going early to keep Rodgers and company off of the field will be key. Against Philadelphia they went away from their game plan, having Griffin throw 49 passes in their losing effort.

The winning formula is clear for the Redskins: ball control and big plays. They should be able to accomplish both against Green Bay to at least have a shot at winning in the fourth quarter.