Ranking the Top 10 Possible Italian GP Winners According to Their Odds

Scott Mitchell@scottmitchell89Contributor ISeptember 4, 2013

Ranking the Top 10 Possible Italian GP Winners According to Their Odds

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    In Formula One, it’s dangerous and near-impossible to make certain pre-race victory predictions.

    Sure, that clouded picture will clear slightly after Friday practice, but before a wheel has even been turned, betting is a risky business.

    One of sport’s greatest assets is unpredictability. Knowing that you cannot possibly know for certain what the result will be makes it mighty fascinating.

    Betting companies must love F1 and its uncertainty, but do these people think anyone can stop Sebastian Vettel as he looks to romp to a fourth straight world title?

    The shortlist of potential 2013 title winners beyond the German is not overwhelming in number. Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen are probably still in the fight.

    That fight continues this weekend at the Italian Grand Prix, and with the help of easyodds.com, we've analysed the spread to see if one of this trio take the spoils, or if Vettel will triumph again and continue his unrelenting progress to another title.

    *All odds correct at the time of checking.

10: Sergio Perez

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    Sergio Perez is having quite the eventful season at McLaren.

    But even the exuberant Mexican would do well to add victory in Italy to his collection of ups and downs.

    He's available at best for 100/1 with Bet365, at worst (well, depends which way you look at it) with Ladbrokes at 150/1, while William Hill split the difference and have him at 125/1.

    That William Hill offering is the same as what Bet365 has for Daniel Ricciardo and what Betfred has for Force India pair Adrian Sutil and Paul di Resta.

    What that means, in a nutshell, is Perez is highly unlikely to claim his maiden win at Monza this weekend. 

9: Jenson Button

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    McLaren's victory odds get a lot better for Jenson Button, but that's only relative to his teammate.

    The reality is that, at 66/1 with Ladbrokes, 50/1 with sportingbet and a low of 40/1 with Sky Bet, the Brit's chances of winning at Monza are considered pretty unlikely.

    It's been a trying season for the team, but Button has managed to extract the maximum from the car. Podiums have eluded them so far, so the top step of the podium would be a big surprise this weekend.

    That's reflected in his odds, though surprisingly he's considered almost as likely as our next potential winner...

8: Felipe Massa

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    Felipe Massa's chances of victory are rated so poorly by Betfred that he's considered as likely to win as Jenson Button!

    The 50/1 mark reflects very poorly (although some would say fairly) on the Brazilian's mediocre performances at Ferrari this year.

    He's available at an almost direct split between 40/1 and 33/1 across most companies, so a Massa victory on Ferrari's home turf is not the most likely scenario by any stretch of the imagination.

7: Romain Grosjean

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    Romain Grosjean might trail teammate Kimi Raikkonen significantly in the standings but the Frenchman has actually been very impressive at points in 2013.

    As usual, the frustrating inconsistency that's dogged his career thus far has spoiled potentially great results this season.

    That is mirrored by his odds for this weekend, where Grosjean is at best 24/1 (with 888sport) to claim his maiden victory, but a more consistent 33/1 with most major betting companies.

    Though if you really fancy him and are eager to make a bit of money, he's available at 40/1 with Paddy Power

6: Mark Webber

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    Mark Webber has not won a race in 2013, and it shows with his odds for success in Italy.

    He toils his teammate Sebastian Vettel (but more on him later), and the 10/1 offering you'll find on sportingbet is about right. You might find him around the 11/1 mark (William Hill will offer you that) and even as high as 12/1 with Paddy Power.

    It would be a shame if the Aussie bows out of the sport without another victory to add to his tally.

    If the bookies are anything to go by, he'll have to wait until beyond this weekend.

5: Kimi Raikkonen

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    Considering he hasn't won since the season opener in Melbourne, Kimi Raikkonen's done remarkably well to remain in with a shout of title glory in 2013.

    He has been a picture of consistency this year, although a second win continues to elude him.

    How likely is that to change this weekend? Well, the Finn is available with totesport at 8/1 but as high as 11/1 with SkyBet.

    The 10/1 you'll find him on at Coral is much more representative of the general spread, which makes the Lotus man a potential dark horse more than a favourite.

4: Nico Rosberg

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    Mercedes' revised low-drag setup for Monza means they are serious candidates for victory, if, as Autosport reports, it all comes together.

    Could that mean Nico Rosberg turns the tables on teammate Lewis Hamilton and rediscovers his race-winning form?

    Twice a victory already this season, Rosberg's slipped back a bit in the last couple of races.

    The Monaco and British Grands Prix winner is considered as likely a Monza victor as 8/1, and as much an outsider as 10/1.

    But the majority, like Labrokes, say he's 9/1. Not a bad price, given the car should be a potent weapon at the rapid Italian track.

3: Lewis Hamilton

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    You will not find odds for a Lewis Hamilton win err much from the 7/2 he's available at from William Hill.

    That suggests the Briton is considered a very good shout for the win, even if he isn't the outright favourite.

    There's good reason to plump for a Hamilton triumph. Mercedes' aforementioned low-drag setup should give him more of a competitive edge at Monza after struggling for a comfortable ride at Spa.

    And if anyone is capable of wringing the absolute maximum from his car over one lap it's Hamilton.

2: Fernando Alonso

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    However, Hamilton is shaded, just by a fraction, by the odds for Fernando Alonso.

    Bookies see the Spaniard as a slightly more likely winner of the Italian Grand Prix, and you have to think that's down to it being the Ferrari team's home race rather than outright pace.

    Yes, he was quicker than both Mercedes drivers in Belgium, but Monza's fast straights and high-speed corners will play more to the strengths of the Silver Arrows than the Prancing Horse. 

    However, with the Tifosi out in force and the title on the line, plus an improved car since the summer break, Alonso will fancy his chances.

    That's why you'll find him available for the win with Bet365 at 3/1.

1: Sebastian Vettel

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    According to his odds, it'll be a sixth success of the season for Sebastian Vettel at Monza this weekend.

    The German is available at 7/4 with Sky Bet and that's a price shared by Ladbrokes, William Hill, Bet365, Coral and a host of others.

    Paddy Power, BetVictor and Ladbrokes rate his victory chances even higher at 13/8.

    He'll need to overcome the Red Bull's straightline speed deficit, but it's something he's managed before. And that makes him the bookies' favourite. 


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