Post 13 May Spell Doom for Rachel

When Jess Jackson bought super filly Rachel Alexandra for $4 million last week, I immediately thought of that classic scene from The Godfather. You know the one: movie mogul Jack Woltz wakes up with a bloody horse’s head in his bed and lets out a terrifying scream.

If you recall, Woltz wouldn’t give the Godfather’s nephew, Johnny Fontane, a role for which he was perfect. No amount of money could sway him. There was only one thing Woltz cared about and that was a colt that came from perfect breeding—so perfect, in fact, that Woltz wasn’t even going to race him. He was sending the colt straight to stud.

When the colt’s head wound up under the sheets the next morning, Fontane suddenly got the part. This brings us back to Jess Jackson.

When Jackson bought Rachel, he announced he wanted to breed her to his champion, Curlin. And after she won the Kentucky Oaks by an astounding 20 lengths (with a higher speed figure, 108, than the Derby winner’s), Jackson figured Rachel could win the Preakness and the Belmont and then he could send her off to make the fastest race horse that ever lived.

A funny thing might happen along the way. She drew the 13 post. The lady drew the far outside, which puts her at a distinct disadvantage going into Pimlico’s short first turn. Sure, her connections are saying how happy they are with the post, that she’s out there where she can’t be bothered or intimidated. She’s also out at the post where no horse has ever won a Preakness. This will be no easy chore.

And there is the possibility she will be intimidated by some of the boys, regardless. Sure Rags to Riches won the Belmont two years ago, and Winning Colors won the Derby decades before that, but that’s about it. The girls don’t usually take the boys on this early in their careers. When they do, the results aren’t very good.

So when you consider that Rachel is going to be a 3-2 favorite and that juicy odds will be had for just about anyone else you like, it’s hard to get excited about betting a filly being asked to do something she’s never done before.

Which horse could win? There’s a line of 12 others who signed up for the chance. Among those are two that appear to have the best chance: Big Drama, leaving from post one, and Derby winner Mine That Bird in post two.

Drama, a horse that did not run in the Derby, has won five straight and set a track record at Gulfstream in his last. He’ll be near the lead the entire race and could easily win it at 10-1.

Mine that Bird looks like he’s improving with every race and should benefit from another race on a dirt track. He also could be a lot closer than most think, as he’s shown an ability to challenge from close up or far back. Another to watch is 30-1 longshot Take the Points, which has won twice on dirt and has his best speed figure on dirt. He’s also working up to this race in grand form.

As for Derby runner-ups, Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, Freisan Fire and Musket Man all look tired from difficult campaigns leading up to the Derby, and they may all go back some. Of the four, Musket Man appears to have the best shot to hit the board.

Then again, Rachel might be a super filly, after all.

For exacta, trifecta and superfecta picks, go to Podolsky's picks.