The Five-Star Relation to the NFL Draft

How accurate is a prospect ranking? The evaluation of talent by several sources suggests that five-star high school athletes are the best in the nation and most valuable to a program.

But how much of that value is retained as the years pass and they become draft eligible? Though we have sprinkles of former five-star prospects selected each year in the first round of the NFL draft, the majority consists of players receiving a lesser rank.

In searching for the relation between five-star prospects and the NFL Draft, I used scout.com as the evaluating source, and the Southern California football factory as the program. I was mostly looking to find the number drafted, where they were selected, and a list of players not selected at all. Those findings are displayed on the chart below.

USC 5-STAR PROSPECTS 2002-2005

Class	Pos	Player	NFL Draft
2003	DE	Lawrence Jackson	Round 1
2004	LB	Keith Rivers	Round 1
2005	LB	Brian Cushing	Round 1
2005	QB	Mark Sanchez	Round 1
2002	OL	Winston Justice	Round 2
2003	WR	Steve Smith	Round 2
2004	TE	Fred Davis	Round 2
2004	OL	Deuce Lutui	Round 2
2005	LB	Rey Maualuga	Round 2
2005	WR	Patrick Turner	Round 3
2002	S	Darnell Bing	Round 4
2003	CB	Will Poole	Round 4
2002	DT	Manuel Wright	Round 5*
2003	QB	John David Booty	Round 5
2004	DE	Jeff Schweiger	UDFA**
2004	S	Scott Ware	UDFA
2003	WR	Whitney Lewis	Undrafted/unsigned**
2004	LB	Ryan Powdrell	UDFA
2004	OL	Jeff Byers	N/A
2005	DE	Averell Spicer	N/A
2005	LB	Luther Brown	N/A

*supplemental draft
**transferred out of program
N/A- currently on the 2009 roster

From the period of 2002 to 2005, 21 five-star players committed to USC. Of the 21 selected, 18 entered the draft, and only three failed to be selected. Of the three players passed over by the NFL, two (Lewis, Schweiger) transferred out of the USC football program, being piped in for evaluation from another college source. Whitney Lewis also represents the only five-star player to go undrafted and unsigned.

Four of the 18 draft eligible players were selected in the first round, roughly 22 percent. The Heisman Trophy Winner, Reggie Bush, does not appear on the chart, because he was ranked as a four-star prospect by scout.com. Whitney Lewis was the supposed crown jewel of that 2003 class, and Bush’s rating was equal to Chauncey Washington.

The first-round total could have easily been six, if not for off-the-field concerns causing both Winston Justice and Rey Maualuga to slide to the second round. But it’s still quite impressive to see nine of these players (50%) going on the first day of the draft, and 14 (82%) selected overall.

According to the numbers, a five-star prospect in the USC football program is nearly guaranteed an NFL contract, in one form or another.

The numbers also indicate that the highest percentage for failure is to transfer out of the program.

What they don’t tell you is that lower ranked prospects have the same first-round opportunities, though the overall percentage would be lower. Reggie Bush (4), Sam Baker (4), Sedrick Ellis (4), Mike Williams (3), and Clay Matthews (0) were all first-round selections, giving the lesser ranked prospects of this time period a greater presence in the first round.

FIVE-STAR PROSPECTS ON THE 2009 TROJANS ROSTER

Jeff Byers
Averell Spicer
Luther Brown
Stafon Johnson
C.J. Gable
David Ausberry
Allen Bradford
Taylor Mays
Joe McKnight
Ronald Johnson
Da’John Harris
Everson Griffen
Kristofer O’Dowd
Marshall Jones
Marc Tyler
Aaron Corp
Martin Coleman
Chris Galippo
Blake Ayles
Tyron Smith
Matt Kalil
D.J. Shoemate
Devon Kennard
Hebron Fangupo
Matt Barkley
T.J. McDonald

TRANSFERRED OUT OF PROGRAM

Vidal Hazelton
Josh Tatum
Antwine Perez

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