Nathan Cleverly vs. Sergey Kovalev: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

The WBO light heavyweight title will be on the line this Saturday night in Cardiff, Wales, as the champion Nathan Cleverly defends against knockout artist Sergey Kovalev.

Cleverly captured his share of the light heavyweight title in 2010, and he has successfully defended it five times. He's a very slick boxer who likes to move around the ring, but he's never faced anyone as physically strong as his opponent this Saturday night.

Kovalev burst on the scene earlier this year when he demolished rugged veteran Gabriel Campillo in three rounds. He hits like a truck, but he's never been in the ring with as slick a boxer as he'll see in this fight. That makes it an intriguing style matchup for both fighters.

So stay with us here at Bleacher Report, and read on for our complete preview and prediction of this Saturday night's big title fight!

Tale of the Tape

Nathan Cleverly is clearly the boxer, and Sergey Kovalev is the puncher in this bout. You can see that by just looking at the numbers. Cleverly has only had four more bouts than his opponent, but he has boxed 114 more rounds. That's astonishing.

Cleverly possesses a 1.5-inch height and reach advantage, which he'll need to exploit in order to keep Kovalev on the outside and away from punching range. That's the crucial factor in this fight because if the Russian gets on the inside he's devastating.

Record:	Nathan Cleverly 26-0, 12 KO	Sergey Kovalev 21-0-1, 19 KO
Height:	6'1.5"	6'0"
Reach:	74"	72.5"
Weight:	174.5 (last fight)	174.75 (last fight)
Stance:	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown:	Caerphilly, Wales	Chelyabinsk, Russia
Rounds:	171	57

*Profiles via BoxRec.

Main Storylines

Nathan Cleverly is in a similar position to his mentor Joe Calzaghe when he faced Jeff Lacy in 2006. Most expected Lacy to cross the pond and use his superior power to blast out the undefeated, but little credited outside the United Kingdom, Calzaghe and expose him. We all know how that ended.

Cleverly is the champion, and he's fighting at home. But he will enter the ring as the underdog, and he'll be looking to make a statement like his mentor did over seven years ago. Nobody is expecting him to drub Kovalev the way Calzaghe drubbed Lacy, but a win in this fight would go a long way to silencing the naysayers.

Sergey Kovalev has about as much hype as any fighter in the sport these days. He's a devastating power puncher, and as Dan Rafael of ESPN reports, HBO suits are infatuated with him and view him as a possible star.

Much has been written about how Cleverly has never faced an opponent with his punching power, but Kovalev has also never faced a slick boxer with the champion's movement either. It'll be interesting to see how he handles an opponent with the skill, and obvious need, to avoid his power.

Strengths

Nathan Cleverly is a slick boxer who uses his height and reach to effectively box at distance. He has excellent stamina and footwork, and he throws a very high volume of punches. Those are all skills he'll need to have in abundance come Saturday night.

The champion has good ring intelligence, and he's smart enough to know he will need to keep this a boxing match in order to win. A fight clearly favors the challenger, and he'll need to box effectively and utilize his skills to avoid the Russian's power. 

Sergey Kovalev is a puncher. That's really all you need to know. 

He has devastating power, good speed and he comes forward with an aggressive, pressuring style from the opening bell. He's scored 19 knockouts in 21 victories, and even more impressively has stopped 18 of those opponents within the first three rounds.

Weaknesses

Nathan Cleverly doesn't have much firepower in his arsenal. He's a slick boxer, but his punching power is average at best. That could spell trouble against a fighter who doesn't respect him and isn't afraid of coming forward. If he can't get Kovalev's attention, he could be in some trouble.

The Welshman has become the subject of some criticism abroad lately for not stepping up to the plate and challenging himself with top-flight opposition. Some have speculated that he's been protected, but that certainly isn't the case in this fight. 

Sergey Kovalev has knocked out a lot of fighters, but he's never been in there with anyone you'd consider elite. Most of his opponents have been of the journeyman or gate-keeper variety, and we don't yet know how he'll perform if he gets extended in a fight. 

If he can't get to Cleverly early and make his power the decisive factor, we don't know much about his ability to perform in the later rounds. He's never gone further than the eighth round in his career. What will happen if Cleverly forces him to go the distance? 

Nathan Cleverly Will Win If...

Nathan Cleverly needs to box effectively and avoid getting drawn into exchanges. He doesn't have a ton of power, and that type of fight would heavily favor his opponent.

The champion needs to use his jab to control distance and setup his heavier punches. If the fight gets too close he'll need to utilize his footwork to create angles that make it difficult for Kovalev to score with his heavy hands. 

Cleverly has a tendency to play to the crowd, and that often leads him into unnecessary exchanges with his opponent's. He can get away with that against the Robin Krasniqis and Tony Bellews of the world, but against Kovalev he can ill afford to do anything but box. 

Sergey Kovalev Will Win If...

Sergey Kovalev needs to connect clean to Nathan Cleverly's chin in order to win this fight. The Russian is a bit of an unknown when it comes to longer fights, and he'll likely look to land something early in the fight that sets the tone, or perhaps ends the night early.

The challenger has underrated hand speed, and while his boxing technique is best described as rugged he isn't just a one-trick-pony. He can box a little bit, but he makes his hay by landing heavy-handed shots that put his foes' lights out.

If Kovalev is able to get inside of Cleverly's defense and land his shots then he will win this fight.

And the Winner Will Be...

Unfortunately for Nathan Cleverly he isn't Joe Calzaghe, and Sergey Kovalev is no Jeff Lacy. The parallels are there, but the outcome will be very different.

Cleverly simply doesn't have the power to keep Kovalev honest for the entire fight. He might frustrate him in the early rounds with his movement and boxing ability, but at some point his bravery and desire to please the crowd will get the better of him.

Kovalev will not be frustrated if he struggles to get inside early. He only knows one way to fight, and that's coming forward, being aggressive and attacking.

He'll break through at some point and when he lands flush he's going to hurt Cleverly. He'll win this fight via mid-round stoppage and stake his claim in the light heavyweight division.

Sergey Kovalev KO 7 Nathan Cleverly