Fantasy NASCAR Picks for Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Watkins Glen this week for the Cheez-It 355.

This will be the second race of the 2013 season on a road course. Although Watkins Glen is much different from Sonoma, the drivers who had success in California will have success in New York as well. Watkins Glen does not require the technical skills that Sonoma does, but road course racing requires a different breed of driver. Those who figured out Sonoma should have no problem with Watkins Glen.

One of the misconceptions about road-course racing is that fantasy NASCAR teams must use the road-course ringers. Do not be fooled by these drivers, because their chances of winning the race are slim. There are enough drivers in the Sprint Cup Series who have figured out how to race on the road courses that it will be tough for the ringers to finish inside the top 10.

Two practices are scheduled for Friday before qualifying Saturday morning. Fantasy NASCAR players should use this opportunity to see which drivers have fast cars before their lineups must be in before qualifying.

Here is my top 25 and stats from the NASCAR Media Center based upon the driver’s career statistics at Watkins Glen…

Racing for the Win

1. Tony Stewart needs another win to secure his place in the Chase, and he may get it at Watkins Glen. Stewart has been very good at the racetrack in his career. He has five wins, seven top-five finishes and 10 top-10 finishes in his 14 career starts. Stewart is my pick to win this week.

2. Juan Pablo Montoya looked good in the race at Sonoma. He had a good chance to win if he had not run out of gas. His team will have a better fuel-millage strategy this week. In his career, Montoya has been much better at Watkins Glen than he has been at Sonoma. That is bad news for the field this week.

3. Marco Ambrose is the driver that must be on every team at the road courses. He is the best driver in the Sprint Cup Series on the road courses, and there is no reason to use him at any other racetracks. Ambrose has finished all five of his races at Watkins Glen in the top five. He will make it six for six this week.

4. Kurt Busch desperately needs a win to make it into the Chase. Sunday’s race is his best chance of the races remaining on the schedule. Busch has become one of the best road-course racers in the Sprint Cup Series. He started seventh and finished fifth at Sonoma. Expect the same kind of race from Busch on Sunday.  

5. Kyle Busch has started the last two races at Watkins Glen on the front row and finished both in the top 10. He is my pick to win the pole this week and add another top-five finish to his resume on the road courses.

6. Brad Keselowski has finished the last two races at Watkins Glen in second place. Keselowski has figured out how to get around the racetrack and is a great sleeper pick this week. He is slowly turning around his season and may get hot down the stretch.

7. Jimmie Johnson has dominated the Sprint Cup Series this season. Watkins Glen is one of the only racetracks Johnson has not won at. It would not surprise me to see him in Victory Lane on Sunday, but there are much better racetracks to use Johnson. Save him in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing leagues.  

8. Jeff Gordon has always been considered one of the best road-course racers in NASCAR history. He is still good, but he does not dominate the races like he once did. Gordon is a four-time winner at Watkins Glen and will easily finish in the top 10 on Sunday.

9. Martin Truex Jr. is another sleeper pick this week. When people think of road-course racing, Truex is not the first name that comes to mind. The fact is that he has very good stats on the road courses the past two seasons. He won the race this year at Sonoma and finished the last two races at Watkins Glen in the top 10. He will be up front once again this week.  

10. Carl Edwards had a streak of five consecutive top-10 finishes at Watkins Glen from 2006-2010. He just missed the top 10 in the last two races. Edwards will add another top-10 finish to his resume at Watkins Glen this week.

Don’t Overlook

11. A.J. Allmendinger is a road course specialist. He won the race at Road America this year in the Nationwide Series and finished the last two races at Watkins Glen in the top 10. Allmendinger is a good choice for all fantasy NASCAR racing teams this week.

12. Clint Bowyer has quietly become one of the best road-course racers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. He is much better at Sonoma than he is at Watkins Glen, but he should easily finish inside the top 15 this week.

13. Greg Biffle had a good race at Sonoma. He started fourth and finished eighth. He finished sixth in this race last year and has a good chance at another good run on Sunday.

14. Ryan Newman started No. 30 and drove his way up to a No. 15 finish at Sonoma. He actually drove better than his finish indicates. Stewart Haas Racing is on a roll right now, so expect another good run from Newman this week.

15. Brian Vickers will drive the No. 55 car for Michael Waltrip Racing this week. He won the last race he started in the Aaron’s Dream Machine and should be good again this week. Vickers is worth a start if you want to save a start with another driver.

16. Kevin Harvick has either been very good or very bad at Watkins Glen. He has six top-10 finishes, including one win, but also has four finishes outside the top 15 at the racetrack. Which Harvick will show up this week? Play it safe and expect him to finish just outside the top 15 on Sunday.

17. Joey Logano started eighth and finished No. 11 at Sonoma. He also led 11 laps in the race. Logano could surprise people with a top-10 finish this week, but I think a top-20 spot is more likely.

18. Matt Kenseth is having a career season, but he has not been very good on the road courses. Kenseth started sixth and finished No. 19 at Sonoma. He will have the same kind of race at Watkins Glen on Sunday.

19. Kasey Kahne could surprise people and finish in the top 10, but the chances are slim. Kahne’s best finish at Watkins Glen came last season in 13th. Save Kahne for the oval racetracks.

20. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has not been very good at Watkins Glen. His average finish is 22.7. He has been having a career season, so expect his finish to be a little better than his career average this week.

Trying to Stay on Lead Lap

21. Jamie McMurray could easily finish inside the top 20 this week, but the talent in front of him is too strong. He started on the pole at Sonoma and faded to No. 25. The most you can expect out of McMurray this week is another top-25 finish.

22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be making his first start in the Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen. He finished fourth here last season in the Nationwide Series, so he does have the talent to compete on Sunday. The competition will be much better than what he faced last season in the Nationwide Series.

23. Denny Hamlin has had bad luck this season and is a poor-road course racer. Stay away from him this week.

24. Jeff Burton needs a good finish at Watkins Glen in order to make the Chase. His average finish at the racetrack is 21.1, so do not expect any surprises out of Burton this week.

25. Aric Almirola is not very good on the road courses. He only has one career top-20 finish at Sonoma or Watkins Glen. Expect Almirola to barely make it into the top 25 this week.

Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing Picks

Group A: Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski

Group B: Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Juan Pablo Montoya, Marcos Ambrose

Group C: A.J. Allmendinger, Casey Mears

Fantasy Live Picks

Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Marcos Ambrose, Juan Pablo Montoya, A.J. Allmendinger

If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR

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