2013 Fantasy Football: Overvalued Players Based on ADP

The key to winning in fantasy football is getting the most value out of each of your picks, so you put yourself in a position to succeed.

The best fantasy owners consistently find values and don't reach too much on players. But every year, there are always players with boosted reputations who are taken too early.

Once the ball gets rolling and the hype gets to a certain level, it is often hard to buck the trend. 

But these players are still being taken too early, regardless of the "consensus." Here are five overvalued players based on average draft position (ADP).

All ADP statistics taken from FantasyPros.com on August 28th

Lamar Miller

Current ADP: 46

Lamar Miller is a second-year running back with a good bit of talent, but he has not had an outstanding preseason, which is somewhat of a disappointment to Dolphins fans and fantasy owners.

While Miami has yet to name its starter (also a little concerning), Daniel Thomas had an awful fourth preseason game, gaining seven yards on just three carries. But while Miller is the likely starter, winning the job by default isn't a good thing.

Andrew Luck

Current ADP: 62

Andrew Luck will end up being the best player of the great 2012 quarterback class, but he is being taken way too high in fantasy drafts this year.

He only had a completion percentage of 54.1 in his rookie season and threw 18 interceptions. Both those numbers will improve a little but will keep him out of the top-five discussion. RGIII, Russell Wilson and Tony Romo are going later and are better values.

Wes Welker

Current ADP: 42

Wes Welker is the best slot receiver in the league, but there has to be some type of adjustment period in Denver. He won't establish the level of chemistry with Peyton Manning that he had with Tom Brady immediately.

Add in that he's competing with one of the league's best No. 1 wideouts in Demaryius Thomas, and the seemingly forgotten but still very good Eric Decker as the No. 2 wideout, and this just won't be the same Welker we're used to. Putting him at 42 is just too high.

Trent Richardson

Current ADP: 9

I still am not completely sure why people are so high on Trent Richardson as a fantasy player. He just does not have the recipe for a top-10 guy, which is what he's being drafted as. 

Where do people see the potential in a guy who is playing on a below-average offense, rushed for just 3.6 yards per carry and has a history of injuries? Give me LeSean McCoy (going 10th) over him any day.

Vernon Davis

Current ADP: 51

I think everyone is just letting Vernon Davis' postseason last year cloud the facts from the 2012 regular season, which is the part of the NFL season that is actually relevant for fantasy.

Colin Kaepernick took over as the starter in Week 11, when Davis had six catches. In the last six weeks of the season, he had six total catches for a rousing 61 yards and zero touchdowns. No Michael Crabtree means more targets, but not enough to justify his TE ranking at 51 overall.