Belmont Stakes Expert Picks: Breaking Down Where Smart Money Lies
The 2013 Belmont Stakes will be one of the most exciting events of the year, and horse racing experts from across the sport have started to pick where the best bets will be on Saturday and where the smart money lies.
Casual and hardcore fans alike will be looking to place wagers on the final Triple Crown race of 2013, and with some help from a few of the sport’s smartest minds, you can make it a successful investment.
Before we begin to break down the experts’ picks, let’s take a look at the odds for the Belmont Stakes field (via Daily Racing Forum).
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Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Watchmaker Odds | ML Odds |
1 | Frac Daddy | K. McPeek | A. Garcia | 30-1 | 30-1 |
2 | Freedom Child | T. Albertrani | L. Saez | 8-1 | 8-1 |
3 | Overanalyze | T. Pletcher | J. Velazquez | 15-1 | 12-1 |
4 | Giant Finish | A. Dutrow | E. Prado | 30-1 | 30-1 |
5 | Orb | C. McGaughey III | J. Rosario | 5-2 | 3-1 |
6 | Incognito | K. McLaughlin | I. Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 | 20-1 |
7 | Oxbow | D.W. Lukas | G. Stevens | 6-1 | 5-1 |
8 | Midnight Taboo | T. Pletcher | G. Gomez | 30-1 | 30-1 |
9 | Revolutionary | T. Pletcher | J. Castellano | 5-1 | 9-2 |
10 | Will Take Charge | D.W. Lukas | J. Court | 20-1 | 20-1 |
11 | Vyjack | R. Rodriguez | J. Leparoux | 15-1 | 20-1 |
12 | Palace Malice | T. Pletcher | M. Smith | 15-1 | 15-1 |
13 | Unlimited Budget (f) | T. Pletcher | R. Napravnik | 12-1 | 8-1 |
14 | Golden Soul | D. Stewart | R. Albarado | 12-1 | 10-1 |
*Updated through June 6.
Jay Cronley, ESPN
Predicted Finish
Win: Overanalyze
Place: Orb
Show: Revolutionary
Inside Scoop
"Three things make the Belmont shape up as a great race that's hard to pick. First of all, five horses look about the same on paper, maybe six, maybe seven. Secondly, the distance is a mile and a half, which is a pretty long bicycle ride. And third, the lousy weather is predicted to be lousy again, with rain likely. Rain turns everything inside out and upside down simultaneously and often favors extremes.
"
Breaking It Down
Cronley is a horse racing insider for ESPN and a long-time veteran of the business of handicapping. When he says that betting the Belmont is incredibly tough, those looking to place wagers must heed his warning.
Not only does Cronley offer his prediction and a horse-by-horse breakdown—a very helpful tool that can be found at ESPN.com—his analysis of why he chose the finishing order makes it easy for fans to understand the process.
With unpredictability in mind, Cronley goes off the board with his pick to win it all and decides that it will be Overanalyze that runs away with the victory. This is a big risk that will pay off huge if the prediction is accurate.
Gary Roedemeier, WHAS-TV
Predicted Finish
Win: Golden Soul
Place: Revolutionary
Show: Orb
Inside Scoop
"In the Belmont, I'm going for some value and a horse seemingly bred to run forever. Golden Soul was the last horse into the Derby but he was a fast closing second at the finish line. On another muddy track and with an extra quarter of a mile, I'm taking Dallas Stewart to win the Belmont at somewhere around 10 to 1.
"
Breaking It Down
Roedemeier is a Louisville television institution and a horse racing expert, but he is taking a huge risk calling for an underdog like Golden Soul to run to the front of the Belmont and win the whole race.
Not only is Golden Soul starting in the farthest outside post on Saturday (14th), but the horse also has not won since December of 2012 and has not raced since finishing second at the Kentucky Derby.
As great as the second-place finish at Churchill Downs was for Golden Soul—the sloppy conditions that day could be similar to those at Belmont Park with rain forecasted (h/t Weather.com)—this is a risky pick that could pay off huge if Roedemeier is correct.
Jack Jones, BetFirms.com
Predicted Finish
Win: Orb
Place: Palace Malice
Show: Revolutionary
Inside Scoop
"There are several different factors you must use to come up with your predictions. The horse’s pedigree is a big one, but past performances is the most important factor of all. With most of these Triple Crown races, you are able to see head-to-head results. Finding out how the contenders fared head-to-head can go a long way in predicting the outcome of their next race together. Looking at how horses have run at certain distances also helps, and that goes right along with past performances. There are many more factors to use in your handicapping, but these three would be a good place to start.
"
Breaking It Down
Jones was on the Orb train before the Kentucky Derby, and he has never relinquished his enthusiasm for the horse. That continues with another predicted win for the thoroughbred at Belmont Park.
That is a safe pick, and using the analytics that Jones utilizes—the track length, head-to-head results and overall wins and losses—the handicapper has played it safe going with Orb and Revolutionary in his final trifecta.
While Jones is normally right on the money with his wagers, the hype around Palace Malice is undeserved, and he will likely not finish second. After finishing 12th in the shorter Kentucky Derby, the expectation to finish second at the Belmont Stakes is too high.
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