Kentucky Derby 2013 Horses: Long Shots to Avoid at Churchill Downs

The Kentucky Derby has been dominated by long shots in recent years, highlighted by I'll Have Another's improbable win at Churchill Downs a year ago.

Unfortunately, not every long-shot pick is as smart as it is bold. An unfavorable post draw can spell doom for a horse who prefers to run outside or get to the front early. With only four favorites heading into Saturday's 139th Run for the Roses, there are plenty of long shots to choose from this year.

Here we'll highlight a trio of underdogs to avoid this weekend.

2013 Kentucky Derby | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky. | Purse: $2.18 Million | Grade I | Distance: 10 furlongs | Post Time: 7-7:30 p.m. ET

*Post positions via the Kentucky Derby's official Twitter account. Odds courtesy of NBC Sports, via WDRB's Steve Andress.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	50-1
2	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	30-1
3	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	10-1
4	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	50-1
5	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	12-1
6	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	15-1
7	Giant Finish	Jose L. Espinoza	Anthony W. Dutrow	50-1
8	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	5-1
9	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	15-1
10	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	20-1
11	Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
12	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa, Jr.	15-1
13	Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova II	50-1
14	Verrazano	John R. Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	4-1
15	Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	20-1
16	Orb	Joel Rosario	Claude R. McGaughey III	7/2
17	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	20-1
18	Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	50-1
19	Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	15-1
20	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1

Black Onyx, 50-1, Post No. 1

Don't confuse post No. 1's status as the winningest post in Kentucky Derby history with the winningest in recent history.

It's been nearly 30 years since a horse won the Derby from the rail in post No. 1, which bodes terribly for long shot Black Onyx in 2013. Just ask Yahoo! Sports' Pat Forde.

Black Onyx, ridden by jockey Joe Bravo, has never started a race from the rail. And with Calvin Borel and Revolutionary running from post No. 3, don't be surprised if the 50-1 long shot gets sent to the back of the pack early on.

While a bad draw is never solely to blame for a horse's performance at the Kentucky Derby, it can certainly have a big-time influence on how well or poorly the horse gets out of the gate and ultimately navigates the 1 1/4-mile dirt track.

Lines of Battle, 30-1, Post No. 11

Lines of Battle, a 30-1 dark horse running out of post No. 11, should struggle on Saturday—and for similar reasons as Black Onyx.

At the Kentucky Derby, the horses are loaded into the posts two at a time, starting with post Nos. 1 and 11 and working their way down. That said, both Black Onyx and Lines of Battle will spend more time in the post prior to the gun, which could potentially lead to an anxious start.

Perhaps that's why post Nos. 1, 2, 11 and 12 haven't produced a Kentucky Derby winner since the late 1980s. 

Winning Colors was the last horse to win the Derby from post No. 11 back in 1988, and only three horses have come from that post to win the Derby since the start of the 20th century. 

Also keep in mind that the Aidan O'Brien-trained Lines of Battle has raced just once this year, winning the Grade II U.A.E. Derby last March.

Frac Daddy, 50-1, Post No. 18

Another 50-1 long shot at Churchill Downs is Frac Daddy, one of two Derby horses trained by Ken McPeek.

Running out of the 18th post on Saturday, this colt looks to have a microscopic chance of conquering the first leg of the Triple Crown this spring. Only one horse in history has ever won from post No. 18, and that was Gato Del Sol way back in 1982.

While post Nos. 15 and 16 have produced a combined six winners over the last 20 Kentucky Derby races, posts Nos. 17 and 18 have combined to produce just one winner in the history of the event.

Mine That Bird, the last horse with 50-1 odds that won the Derby in 2009, started much closer to the rail inside post No. 8. Frac Daddy had a strong showing at the Grade II Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last month, but a poor draw and improved competition should make him a non-factor this weekend.

Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter.