Kentucky Derby 2013 Odds: Favorites Sure to Let You Down

Riding a hunch on a long shot and coming up short is acceptable, but taking a favorite and watching it disappoint with a finish out of the money is downright heartbreaking. 

So, as we all try to figure out what horses to lay money on at the 2013 Kentucky Derby, I'm going to start by figuring out which horses not to lay money on. 

The three horses, following the odds, are a good place to start. 

2013 Kentucky Derby Odds

*Points and odds courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com on April 29.

Horse	Points in 2013	Odds
Verrazano	150 points	4/1
Orb	150 points	6/1
Revolutionary	110 points	8/1
Goldcents	129 points	15/2
Overanalyze	110 points	10/1
Normandy Invasion	44 points	10/1
Itsmyluckyday	50 points	14/1
Javas War	122 points	16/1
Vyjack	70 points	16/1
Will Take Charge	60 points	20/1
Lines of Battle	100 points	20/1
Mylute	42 points	25/1
Palace Malice	50 points	25/1
Oxbow	36 points	35/1
Mylute	42 points	35/1
Black Onyx	50 points	40/1
Frac Daddy	44 points	45/1
Charming Kitten	20 points	50/1
Golden Soul	14 points	50/1
Falling Sky	30 points	75/1

Itsmyyluckyday, 12-1

Itsmyluckyday jumped on everyone's radar when he defeated champion Shanghai Bobby at the Holy Bull and did so by setting a track record at Gulfstream Park.

He finished the 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.81. This was an impressive run.

This is a horse with a good kick and the stamina to take the Derby. He's run almost nothing but races one mile or longer.

However, his last time out, he finished second in the Florida Derby to fellow Kentucky Derby hopeful Orb.

Itsmyluckyday didn't look to have the strength to keep up with elite horses on that day, and the deep and talented field of the Derby will bury this horse as he gets lost in traffic. 

Revolutionary, 7-1

Revolutionary will get instant cred as Churchill Downs legend Calvin Borel gets the mount as he pursues his fourth win at the Derby. 

Of course, he isn't going to just ride any old horse. Revolutionary took the Louisiana Derby and has shown the kind of style that looks perfect for the Kentucky Derby.

Oh, this is also a Todd Pletcher horse. 

This horse has shown the ability to move through heavy traffic and take first place with late speed. 

While that certainly makes Revolutionary a horse to watch, it is also a cause for concern. The problem is that with the deep and excellent field, it is going to be much harder to move through traffic, and Revolutionary won't be able to navigate it. 

For all his dominance in the racing world, Pletcher only has one win in 31 attempts at the Kentucky Derby. 

Revolutionary will not be able to help him improve on that mark. 

Normandy Invasion, 9-1

Normandy Invasion has excellent experience against elite fields. The problem is, it is not exactly winning experience.

This horse came in second to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial with a nice late charge that led him past Vyjack.

That was an impressive showing, and it helped build hype for Invasion's chances at the Derby as he was gaining on Verrazano down the stretch. 

This horse also had an earlier second, by a head, to Overanalyze. 

While those are strong and promising showings, let us not forget about his fifth-place finish in February’s Risen Star at Fair Grounds. 

This horse can be overwhelmed and forced into mediocre runs, that is exactly what will happen in this deep field.