NFL Draft 2013: Highlighting Most Polarizing First-Round Candidates

Every draft has potential first-round prospects with some question marks. Many go unnoticed, but some prospects aren’t so lucky.

The NFL draft evaluation process is stringent and thorough. Because players are run through the ringer in interviews and workouts, evaluating those prospects becomes an exercise in weeding out the negatives and weighing the positives that will make those players quality acquisitions for NFL teams.

When the positives and negatives are hard to balance, projecting a landing spot becomes a difficult process.

Everyone has their own opinions on NFL hopefuls, including the general managers and coaches that will be selecting them in the draft. Because we aren’t privy to many of those opinions, we’re left in the dark on many of those players.

The following is a list of some of the most polarizing first-round hopefuls in this draft class. While all three have the talent to be first-round selections, opinions are across the board for these players.

Keenan Allen: WR, California

Projection: No. 29 to New England Patriots

The fall of Keenan Allen has been well documented. Once considered the best receiver in this class and a potential top 10 pick, the California product may not even find a home in the first round at this point.

Despite tremendous route-running ability and strong hands, Allen lacks elite straight-line speed to separate from defensive backs at the NFL level. Teams can overlook that particular shortcoming, but they may not be as lenient with his other red flags.

The 20-year-old injured his knee during the 2012 college football season and is still struggling to recover from the setback. He failed to participate at the combine, and his 40-yard dash at his pro day (when he was able to run) was underwhelming—potentially a result of his nagging knee problem.

Still, teams have overlooked much bigger red flags. His off-field issues may be bigger cause for concern.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Allen was flagged for a drug test at the combine. While his agent denied the failure of said drug test, the speculation (paired with his other issues) may be enough to push the receiver out of the first round entirely.

He has the talent to be a terrific possession receiver in the NFL, but it may not be enough to counteract his red flags.

Manti Te’o: ILB, Notre Dame

Projection: No. 32 to Baltimore Ravens

Off-field indiscretions aside, Manti Te’o will still have a difficult time recouping his top 10 status in this draft. A selection in the final ten picks of the first round is far more likely for the Notre Dame standout.

Te’o’s skills didn’t diminish this season and he didn’t become a different player from Week 1 to the national title game. He did, however, display some shortcomings in Notre Dame’s final game—shortcomings that will facilitate a slide on Day 1.

In that game, the 22-year-old middle linebacker struggled to disengage from blocks and make plays on Alabama’s duo of explosive running backs. The Fighting Irish were overwhelmed at the point of attack, and Te’o didn’t fare much better in shedding Crimson Tide linemen in run defense.

With marginal speed and athleticism for the position, Te’o’s inability to make plays in that game highlighting some of his biggest problems playing in a 4-3 front.

Middle linebackers in four-man fronts have to be able to make plays at the line of scrimmage. Contrary to 3-4 schemes, 4-3 defensive linemen are asked to shoot gaps and beat blockers to get into the backfield, leaving linebackers to fend for themselves against much bigger players. Te’o showed some inability to do so, and questions remain about his ability to play in such a scheme.

Assuming teams in need of a 4-3 middle linebacker have Te’o lower on their list than players like Alec Ogletree, Arthur Brown and Kevin Minter, he’ll have a difficult time garnering a lot of interest prior to the late 20s in the first round.

That said, Te’o abilities have been largely understated in recent months, and there are sure to be teams that will overlook his faults in favor of his tremendous instincts and strong work ethic. Where he goes in this draft is extremely unpredictable.

Geno Smith: QB, West Virginia

Projection: No. 9 to New York Jets

This draft lacks a quarterback of Andrew Luck’s or Robert Griffin III’s talent, but that hasn’t stopped analysts from attempting to put Geno Smith on that pedestal. Simply put, Smith is the best signal-caller in a marginal quarterback class.

The West Virginia product has the arm strength and resume to warrant a top selection in this draft class, but the same may not hold true were he part of another quarterback class. Given the need for franchise quarterbacks in the modern NFL, he still stands to be a top 10 selection, however.

Opinions on Smith’s NFL potential vary from expert to expert. Some believe he is capable of doing special things at the next level, despite the opinions to the contrary. He’s certainly an intriguing option for teams in desperate need of a quarterback, especially given the NFL’s new cap-friendly restrictions on rookie contracts.

Even more intriguing, some experts don’t rank Smith as the top quarterback at all, instead deferring to Florida State’s E.J. Manuel or Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib. Whatever the case may be, this much is true: Smith’s destination is as unknown now as it was three months ago.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets could all be in the running for Smith on Day 1, as well as several teams that would have to trade up to acquire him. No option seems any more likely than another.

Smith’s NFL success won’t be determined for several years, but that fact won’t stop analysts from debating his worthiness of being a top selection this year.