Which Teams Draft Best in the First Round?

Introduction   

Recently, I saw an article on the web in which the author assigned grades to each NFL team for its drafting prowess. The article was effective for what the author was trying to do (even if he did give my favorite team a D). 

He used objective measures such as number of starters and number of Pro Bowl players that came out of each team’s total draft. However, the earliest draft the analysis was based on was 2003, which meant that some of the players on whom he based his grades had been in the league for only a year or two.

One or two years after the draft is too early to fairly grade most NFL draft picks. Many players, especially quarterbacks and wide receivers need a few years to make the adjustment from college to the pros. Others start off looking great only to fall flat due to injury, character flaws, or merely being one trick ponies.

It requires a good five years to fairly grade all draft picks. Therefore, my study is based on the 1995 through 2004 drafts, which allows even the youngest players a minimum of five seasons in the league.

To keep the data within manageable limits, I concentrated on the first round of each draft, since that is where the lion’s share of the money goes.  Few teams that do not draft well in the first round can remain successful for long.  Between blowing salary cap bucks on busts and losing out on players that can help the team in the long run, the team that fails in the first round of the draft most commonly fail on the field.

Grading System

I have graded all first round draft picks between 1995 and 2004 on a five-point scale as follows:

1)      Bust – the epitome of a wasted pick

2)      Disappointment – not a total bust, but not worth the pick

3)      Starter – an average first round draft pick

4)      Pro Bowler – made the Pro Bowl at least once and had a generally good career

5)      Canton Class – a consistently great player for many years

The grades for each first round draft pick were based on position-specific statistics, percentage of possible starts, and number of Pro Bowls to which the player was voted.  The stats were compared with all other first round picks at the same position, which allowed for a reasonably objective grading system.

Team Grades

Every team in the NFL is listed below with the average first round draft grade in parentheses and best and worst first round picks.

Baltimore Ravens (4.00) Best pick Ray Lewis; worst pick Kyle Boller

Indianapolis Colts (3.78) Best pick Peyton Manning; worst pick Rob Morris

New York Jets (3.33) Best pick Keyshawn Johnson; worst pick Jonathan Becht

Washington Redskins (3.33) Best pick Chris Samuels; worst pick Andre Johnson

Tennessee/Houston Oilers/Titans (3.13) Best pick Eddie George; worst pick Kenny Holmes

Buffalo Bills (3.10) Best pick Ruben Brown; worst pick Erik Flowers

Pittsburgh Steelers (3.10) Best pick Alan Faneca; worst pick Jamain Stephens

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.00) Best pick Derrick Brooks; worst pick Reidel Anthony

Dallas Cowboys (3.00) Best pick Roy Williams; worst pick David LaFleur

Jacksonville Jaguars (3.00) Best pick Tony Boselli; worst pick R. Jay Soward

St. Louis Rams (3.00) Best pick Torry Holt; worst pick Lawrence Phillips

Seattle Seahawks (2.92) Best pick Walter Jones; worst pick Marcus Tubbs

Minnesota Vikings (2.92) Best pick Randy Moss; worst pick Demitrius Underwood

Oakland Raiders (2.90) Best pick Charles Woodson; worst pick Matt Stinchcomb

New Orleans Saints (2.90) Best pick Will Smith; worst pick Jonathan Sullivan

Atlanta Falcons (2.88) Best pick Patrick Kerney; worst pick Michael Booker

Philadelphia Eagles (2.80) Best pick Donovan McNabb; worst pick Jon Harris

Denver Broncos (2.78) Best pick Tevor Price; worst pick Marcus Nash

Houston Texans (2.75) Best pick Andre Johnson; worst pick David Carr

New England Patriots (2.73) Best pick Ty Law; worst pick Chris Canty

New York Giants (2.67) Best pick Jeremy Shockey; worst pick William Joseph

Arizona Cardinals (2.64) Best pick Simeon Rice; worst pick Wendell Bryant

Kansas City Chiefs (2.63) Best pick Tony Gonzalez; worst pick Sylvester Morris

San Diego Chargers (2.60) Best pick LaDainian Tomlinson; worst pick Ryan Leaf

Cincinnati Bengals (2.55) Best pick Carson Palmer; worst pick Akili Smith

Carolina Panthers (2.55) Best pick Julius Peppers; worst pick Rae Carruth

Chicago Bears (2.40) Best pick Brian Urlacher; worst pick Michael Haynes

Detroit Lions (2.31) Best pick Jeff Hartings; worst pick Charles Rodgers

San Francisco 49ers (2.30) Best pick Julian Peterson; worst pick Reggie McGrew

Green Bay Packers (2.30) Best pick Nick Barnett; worst pick Jamal Reynolds

Cleveland Browns (2.29) Best pick Gerard Warren; worst pick Craig Powell

Miami Dolphins (1.67) Best pick Daryl Gardner; worst pick Yatil Green